Metro Vancouver’s residential market in 2024 proved to be a mixed bag, falling short of optimistic forecasts set earlier in the year by Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR). While some gains were seen, they didn’t reach expectations, leaving some market watchers reassessing their expectations for 2025.

Missed sales targets

GVR released its H1 forecast for 2025, including a look at how 2024’s market compared to its forecast. At the start of last year, optimism was high. GVR predicted an 8 per cent increase in sales compared to 2023, with projections reaching 28,250 transactions by year-end. Ultimately the market closed the year with 26,561 sales, a 2 per cent rise over the previous year. The momentum, initially driven by reduced borrowing costs, faltered in the summer, curtailing overall performance.

Price gains under pressure

Similarly, price growth failed to reach expectations. The average residential price was forecasted to rise by 3 per cent in 2024, reaching  $1,320,000. Instead, the actual increase was half that—1.5 per cent, with the year-end average price settling at $1.3-million. Early gains in the year were eroded by growing inventory levels and weaker-than-expected sales.

“Despite numerous cuts to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate and subsequent reductions to borrowing costs throughout 2024, supply continued to outpace demand by year-end, eroding, but not fully erasing, the price gains which began the year,” the report notes.

Looking ahead to 2025

With 2024’s shortfalls as a backdrop, GVR’s forecast for 2025 maintains cautious optimism. Key drivers such as population growth, household formation and lower borrowing costs are expected to support the market. Political and economic uncertainties—including potential U.S. trade policies pose a risk to the housing market

Risks and wildcards

GVR’s modeling suggests that based on “preliminary analysis” proposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, if implemented, could create a drag on sales activity. The impact is expected to be short-lived, and “any negative impacts to home prices are likely to be modest and would most likely arise through the (potential) reduction in sales activity, rather than through any direct impacts arising from the tariffs themselves.”

Canada’s inevitable federal election could also derail GVR’s outlook for the region. “Political turmoil at the Canadian federal level along with the potential for a new Conservative government could yield policies negatively impacting the housing market, though new policies could also positively impact the market as well.”

Outlook for 2025

GVR economists see improved momentum heading into 2025 compared to last year, with lower borrowing costs anticipated to support demand.

“Our price forecasts for 2025 are again similar to those we expected in 2024, however the market now has the benefit of significantly lower borrowing costs to start the year than were available in 2024, which we believe should provide the necessary stimulus to reach our 2025 price forecasts.”

Residential sales are expected to reach 30,250—a 13.9 per cent increase over 2024, while the average home price is projected to grow 4.1 per cent—reaching $1,354,000. 

As with most forecast’s, GVR’s outlook for the year comes with a key caveat: a stronger-than-expected economic recovery could accelerate sales and price growth, while heightened inventory levels or recessionary pressures could dampen performance.

Metro Vancouver home sales climbed over 30 per cent in December from the previous year, Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) reports.

“Looking back on 2024, it could best be described as a pivot year for the market after experiencing such dramatic increases in mortgage rates in the preceding years,” said Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics, in a press release.

“With borrowing costs now firmly on the decline, buyers have started to show up in numbers after somewhat of a hiatus—and this renewed strength is now clearly visible in the more recent monthly data.” 

2024 summary: Sales, inventory and prices

The region’s residential sales totalled 26,561 for the year. This was 20.9 per cent below the 10-year annual sales average, 1.2 per cent above the 26,249 sales in 2023 and 9.2 per cent below the 29,261 sales in 2022.

There were 60,388 properties listed on MLS in Metro Vancouver last year. This was 5.7 per cent above the region’s 10-year annual average, 18.7 per cent above the 50,894 properties listed in 2023 and 9.7 per cent above the 55,047 properties listed in 2022.

There are currently 10,948 properties listed for sale in Metro Vancouver, 24.4 per cent above December 2024 and 25.3 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average. 

The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,171,500, 0.5 per cent more than December 2023 and 0.1 per cent less than November 2024. 

Total sales short of target but 2025 well-positioned

“Disappointingly, sales came in shy of our forecasted target for the year, but the December figures signal an emerging pattern of strength in home sales, building on the momentum seen in previous months,” Lis said.

“These more recent sales figures are now trending back towards long-term historical averages, which suggests there may still be quite a bit of potential upside for sales as we head into 2025, should the recent strength continue.”

Lis explained that although sales activity had a slower start to the year, price trends were rising at the start of last year and closed the year on a flatter trajectory. While most market segments saw year-over-year increases of a few per cent, he said it appears the 2025 market is positioned to be “considerably more active than we’ve seen in recent years.”

December summary

Last month, the region’s residential sales totalled 1,765, a 31.2 per cent increase from December 2023 and 14.9 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average. 

There were 1,676 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale in Metro Vancouver, 26.3 per cent more than in December 2023 and 1.1 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for December 2024 was 16.8 per cent (12.1 per cent for detached homes, 23.6 per cent for attached homes and 18.7 per cent for apartment homes).

By property type

Detached home sales in December 2024 reached 494, 31.4 per cent more than in December 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home was $1,997,000, a 2.0 per cent increase from December 2023 and nearly unchanged from November 2024. 

Apartment home sales in December 2024 reached 891, 23.9 per cent more than in December 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home was $749,900, a 0.1 per cent decrease from December 2023 and 0.4 per cent less than November 2024. 

Attached home sales in December 2024 totalled 371, 55.9 per cent more than in December 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse was $1,114,600, a 3.4 per cent increase from December 2023 and 0.3 per cent less than November 2024. 

Review the full report here.

Home sales in Metro Vancouver continued their upward trend in November, coupled with an influx of new listings.

According to the Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR), 2,181 residential sales were recorded last month, marking a 28 per cent increase compared to November 2023. 

“When we saw demand pick up in October, there was still a question over whether it was a blip in the data or the start of an emerging trend,” explains Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics. “While the November market isn’t quite a Cyber Monday door-crasher, buyers are continuing to take advantage of the relatively balanced market conditions while they last.”

The average home price was $1.17-million—nearly unchanged month-over-month and down 0.9 per cent compared to last year.

New listings and inventory on the rise

GVR reports 3,725 homes were listed in November—a 10.6 per cent increase year-over-year and 5.4 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average. This has pushed the total inventory of homes available to 13,245, representing a 21 per cent increase year-over-year and 26 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average.

Lis emphasizes that this steady supply of homes has played a crucial role in keeping prices stable. “Although demand has increased as we head into year-end, the number of newly listed properties coming to market in November remained sufficient to keep prices steady across all segments,” he notes.

A balanced market

The sales-to-active listings ratio—a key indicator of market conditions—sat at 17 per cent in November, reflecting balanced market conditions across property types. Detached homes posted a ratio of 12.7%, while attached homes and apartments recorded ratios of 23.1% and 18.7%, respectively.

Outlook for the New Year

As the market edges closer to 2025, Lis warns “…if the strength in demand continues at the current pace, and the pace of newly listed properties coming to market doesn’t keep up, it may not be long until we see the return of upward pressure on prices.”

Home sales in Metro Vancouver jumped 31.9 per cent in October compared with the same month last year, according to Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR). The real estate board says the strong sales are a sign buyers may be responding to lower interest rates. 

“To some market watchers, this rebound may come as a surprise, but with four consecutive rate cuts from the Bank of Canada—and more likely to come on the horizon—it was only a matter of time until signs of renewed strength in demand showed up,” explains Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics.

Sales slightly below 10-year average

There were 2,632 residential sales registered on MLS in the region, 5.5 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average, after months of tracking approximately 20 per cent below the trendline. 

New listings jump nearly 17%

The board says 5,452 properties were newly listed on Metro Vancouver’s MLS, a 16.9 per cent increase year-over-year and 20 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average. 

“While the strength in October’s numbers is encouraging, one data point does not make a trend,” Lis says. “Recent data shows that market conditions have been decidedly balanced, with prices easing over the past few months. With the recent uptick in sales however, the attached and apartment segments are now tilting toward a seller’s market with the detached segment not far behind, suggesting the recent period of price moderation may be nearing an end.”

HPI down slightly

The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1.17-million—a 1.9 per cent decrease over October 2023 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to September 2024.

Home sales in Metro Vancouver decreased by 3.8 per cent year-over-year in September, signaling that recent reductions in borrowing costs have yet to significantly boost demand, Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) reports.

The region saw 1,852 residential sales in September, down from 1,926 in the same period last year. This figure is also 26 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average of 2,502.

“Real estate watchers have been monitoring the data for signs of renewed strength in demand in response to recent mortgage rate reductions, but the September figures don’t offer the signal that many are watching for,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics explains. “Sales continue trending roughly 25 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average in the region, which, believe it or not, is a trend that has been in place for a few years now.

Lis adds that although sales are now tracking slightly below GVR’s forecast, they remain optimistic that 2024 sales will still end up higher than 2023’s.

Market overview

There were 6,144 new listings in September, a 12.8 per cent increase from last year and 16.7 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average. Properties listed for sale in Metro Vancouver totalled 14,932 units, up 31.2 per cent from September 2023.

The overall sales-to-active listings ratio was 12.8 per cent, with detached homes at 9.1 per cent, attached homes at 16.9 per cent and apartments at 14.6 per cent. 

‘All signs pointing to further (rate) reductions; it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall’

The increase in new listings has provided buyers with more options, leading to downward pressure on prices and a buyer’s market. “With two more policy rate decisions to go this year, and all signs pointing to further reductions, it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall should buyers step off the sidelines,” Lis notes.

The benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver now stands at $1,179,700, reflecting a 1.8 per cent year-over-year decrease and a 1.4 per cent decline from August 2024. 

Detached homes

Sales of detached homes dropped 9.8 per cent compared to last year, with 516 units sold in September. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,022,200, a 0.5 per cent increase year-over-year but down 1.3 per cent from August.

Apartment homes

Apartment sales fell 4.9 per cent, with 940 units sold. The benchmark price for an apartment is $762,000, marking a 0.8 per cent decline year-over-year and month-over-month.

Attached homes

Attached homes, however, saw a 7.4 per cent increase in sales year-over-year, totaling 378 units. The benchmark price for townhomes is $1,099,200, down 0.5 per cent from September 2023 and 1.8 per cent from August.

Review the full report here.

Last week, Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) announced two new members of its team. The organization has appointed Ashutosh “Ash” Anil as its first-ever chief membership officer (CMO), and Craig Munn as its chief corporate development officer (CCDO), also a new role.

CMO role ‘signals our long-term commitment to providing an innovative and superior customer service experience’

The CMO is a new senior leadership position created to help GVR identify the tools and technology, systems and process improvements needed to service over 15,000 realtor members and 500 real estate brokerages.

“The establishment of the CMO position signals our long-term commitment to providing an innovative and superior customer service experience to our members day in and out,” Jeff King, GVR’s CEO shares.

What Anil brings to the CMO role

Anil commenced the role on September 23 and is responsible for the strategy, direction and service enhancement for the MLS, professional development, member services, events and professional standards areas.

He brings extensive experience leading customer experience operations and transformations across industries and countries, including Canada, the United States, India and the United Kingdom. Anil has worked in various sectors including telecom, retail, public service and technology for brands like Three Telecom UK, Rogers Communications, Best Buy Canada, Stern Partners, Technical Safety BC and Hughes Network Systems.

“We are excited to welcome Ash to our leadership team. He brings a wealth of experience and talent to this newly developed role within the organization,” King says.

‘We need talented people exploring new partnerships & other opportunities that allow us to disrupt, evolve & innovate’

As CCDO, Munn will help lead strategy implementation and stakeholder engagement, pursue key business opportunities and build and strengthen GVR partnerships and relationships across the profession and business community. 

“The purpose of this new leadership role within GVR is to ensure we’re dedicating the time and resources to think differently about our business. Times and conditions are changing, and we need talented people exploring new partnerships and other opportunities that allow us to disrupt, evolve and innovate our products and services,” King says.

What Munn brings to the CCDO role

Munn most recently served GVR with distinction as the vice president of communication and events, for which his responsibilities included internal and external communication, media and public relations, content strategy, issues management and stakeholder engagement. 

Prior to joining GVR, he worked as the press and public affairs officer at the British Consulate General in Vancouver and a reporter for newspapers across the Lower Mainland.

“Craig is an astute and results-focused business leader who will play a pivotal role in helping us drive toward (our) goals in the immediate and long term,” notes King.

Photo: GVR

Last month’s Metro Vancouver home sales stayed below 10-year seasonal averages, according to the Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR). The region’s residential sales totalled 1,904, marking a 17.1 per cent decline from the 2,296 sales the year before and 26 per cent less than the 10-year seasonal average (2,572).

“From a seasonal perspective, August is typically a slower month for sales than June or July. In this respect, this August has been no different,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics explains. “With that said, sales remain in a holding pattern, trending roughly 20 per cent below their 10-year seasonal average, which suggests buyers are still feeling the pinch of higher borrowing costs, despite two recent quarter percentage point reductions to the policy rate this summer.” 

Buyers’ hesitancy + new listing activity result in accumulated inventory & balanced market conditions

4,109 new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties were on Metro Vancouver’s MLS in August, a 4.2 per cent increase from the 3,943 properties listed the year before. Despite the increase, the total was 1.7 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (4,179).

The total number of properties listed for sale stands at 13,812, a 37 per cent rise from August 2023’s total of 10,082 and 20.8 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average of 11,432.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio in August was 14.3 per cent. By category, it was 9.6 per cent for detached homes, 18 per cent for attached homes and 17.2 per cent for apartments.

“Buyers’ hesitancy to enter the market, paired with new listing activity on the part of sellers that is in line with historical averages, has allowed inventory to accumulate for a number of months and has moved the market firmly into balanced conditions,” Lis notes.

He says that with the Bank of Canada reducing the policy rate this month by another quarter percentage point, and with September being a time that often sees more seasonal sales, the fall market should bring more buyers off the sidelines.

Where prices landed

The composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver currently sits at $1,195,900, 0.9 per cent less than August 2023 and 0.1 per cent less than July 2024.

By property type, detached home sales reached 509, a 13.9 per cent decline from 591 the year before. Apartment sales totalled 1,012 in August, 20.3 per cent less than the 1,270 sales in August 2023 and attached homes totalled 370 sales last month, 12.3 per cent less than the 422 sales of the prior year.

Review the full report here.

Last week, Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) released its 2024 second-half (H2) housing forecast, which reviews new dynamics impacting the market along with economic trends that informed the first half of 2024.

Here are some highlights of what GVR expects for the second half of the year.

Sales and price forecasts

This year, GVR sales and price forecasts are almost exactly on target, but market balance has shifted from favouring sellers at the year’s start towards more balanced conditions.

GVR’s 2024 first-half (H1) forecast predicted that sales across Greater Vancouver would jump by about 8.0 per cent compared to 2023 (28,250 by year-end).

Sales from January to July this year totalled 16,227, with the prediction being 16,256 — a 0.18 per cent difference. GVR is keeping its year-end sales prediction as-is.

So far, aggregate price metrics have shown slight increases as the H1 forecast predicts, driven by steady sales combined with near-record-low inventory levels at 2024’s start. With these levels rising throughout the past few months, most aggregate price metrics are trending sideways or slightly downward.

Yet the median differential between the list price and sale price for all GVR properties has trended at a close to 2.0 per cent discount since the start of the year.

In the near term, GVR’s outlook for the year’s second half is a balanced market that continues to support modest price appreciation by year-end. The organization keeps its outlook of price appreciation in the 1.0-4.0 per cent range across market segments to year-end.

Inventory

As sellers stay keen to list their properties, Greater Vancouver hasn’t seen such inventory level highs since 2019. Compared to 2023 levels, this boost has been the biggest surprise in H1 data.

The main drivers behind this trend are a result of steady demand from buyers along with higher-than-expected new listing activity levels, which isn’t of concern to GVR right now. The sense is that increased inventory might be positive, especially for buyers, as it signals a return to more balanced market conditions.

Though sales are below their 10-year average, they’re not the lowest seen before and this isn’t a new trend. Newly listed properties are meeting or exceeding historical averages, which has resulted in accumulated inventory thanks to below-average sales.

GVR found that many factors have contributed to the new listing activity boost, including the fact that early 2023 had lower-than-normal new listing activity and sellers who waited to sell then are possibly doing so this year.

Interest rate cut impacts

GVR says that while additional reductions to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate are expected this year, it may take longer to see increased buyer demand.

This is suggested by the fact that while the H2 forecast favours another 50-basis point reduction to the policy rate, buyers showed a lack of response to the 50-basis point reduction in H1.

Review the full H2 forecast here.

Last month, new listings on Metro Vancouver’s MLS rose about 20 per cent year-over-year, resulting in a healthy level of inventory, Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) reports. At the same time, residential sales totalled 2,333, which was 5.0 per cent less than the same time last year and nearly 18 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average.

‘It’s a bit surprising transaction levels remain below historical norms as we enter the midpoint of summer’

“The trend of buyers remaining hesitant, that began a few months ago, continued in the July data despite a fresh quarter percentage point cut to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics notes.

“With the recent half percentage point decline in the policy rate over the past few months, and with so much inventory to choose from, it’s a bit surprising transaction levels remain below historical norms as we enter the midpoint of summer.”

Balanced conditions, healthy inventory, still early days

In July, Metro Vancouver saw 14,326 total number of properties listed for sale, a 39.1 per cent increase compared to July 2023 and 21.5 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average.

Sales-to-active listings across all property types were 16.9 per cent (12.8 per cent for detached homes, 20.1 per cent for attached homes and 19.3 per cent for apartment homes).

“With the overall market experiencing balanced conditions, and with a healthy level of inventory not seen in quite a few years, price trends across all segments have levelled out with very modest declines occurring month over month,” Lis says.

“While it remains to be seen whether softening prices and improved borrowing costs will entice buyers to purchase as we head into the fall market, it’s worth noting that it can take a few months for improvements to borrowing costs to materialize into higher transaction levels.”

Lis adds it’s still early days so they’ll watch the market for signs of increasing transaction activity in the upcoming months.

Sales and prices

Currently, the MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price for residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,197,700, a 0.8 per cent decrease over July 2023 and a 0.8 per cent decrease over June 2024. 

Detached home sales last month reached 688, a 1.0 per cent increase compared to July 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,049,000, 2.1 per cent higher than July 2023 and 0.6 per cent less than June 2024. 

Apartment home sales last month reached 1,192, a 6.9 per cent decrease compared to July 2023. The benchmark price for an apartment home is $768,200, 0.3 per cent less than July 2023 and 0.7 per cent less than June 2024. 

Attached home sales last month reached 437, a 6.2 per cent decrease compared to July 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,124,700, 1.4 per cent more than July 2023 and 1.2 per cent less than June 2024. 

Review the full report here.

Metro Vancouver home sales in June stayed below average, at 2,418 (19.1 per cent less than a year prior and 23.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average), with inventory climbing to levels not seen since spring 2019, Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) reports.

“The June data continued a trend we’ve been watching where buyers appear hesitant to transact in volumes we consider typical for this time of year, while sellers remain keen to bring their properties to market,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics notes. 

“This dynamic is bringing inventory levels up to a healthy range not seen since before the pandemic. This trend is providing buyers more selection to choose from and driving all market segments toward balanced conditions.”

Inventory accumulating with more stable prices, well-priced properties still selling quickly

Last month, the region saw 5,723 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale, a seven per cent increase compared to June 2023 and three per cent above the 10-year seasonal average.

Currently, there are 14,182 properties listed for sale on the MLS system in Metro Vancouver, 42 per cent more than the year prior and 20.3 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average. Across all property types, June’s sales-to-active listings ratio is 17.6 per cent. 

“With an interest rate announcement from the Bank of Canada in July, there is a possibility of another cut to the policy rate this summer. This is yet another factor tilting the market in favour of buyers, even if the boost to affordability is modest,” Lis says.

“But June’s lower-than-normal transaction volumes suggest many buyers remain hesitant, which has allowed inventory to accumulate and has kept a lid on upward price pressure across market segments. With that said, the transaction-level data do show that well-priced properties are still selling quickly, suggesting astute buyers are able to spot value and act when opportunities arise.”

Prices

The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,207,100, a 0.5 per cent increase from the year prior and a 0.4 per cent decrease from May 2024.

Currently, the benchmark price for a detached home is $2,061,000, an apartment home is $773,400 and a townhouse is $1,138,100.

Review the full report here.