​REALTORS® are known for being self-starters and go-getters; people persons and relationship builders; expert negotiators and problem solvers; and caring individuals who help their neighbours and support local community groups and charities in countless ways. 

More than 160,000 REALTORS® live and work in communities across Canada. Just imagine if Canadian REALTORS® and the REALTOR® association community were to unite and use their collective expertise and skills to help address some of the most pressing social and environmental challenges together. 

Picture yourself wearing your REALTOR® pin and knowing it represents being part of an industry that is not only making home happen for Canadians but also committed to creating a better tomorrow for all. This is the big idea behind the Canadian Real Estate Association’s (CREA) recent adoption of social purpose, building on the positive contributions REALTORS® are already making every day.

About social purpose

Social purpose is a growing governance best practice for organizations of all kinds, including associations. Not to be confused with vision or mission statements, legal responsibilities or goals, social purpose is an organization’s reason to exist while optimally contributing to the long-term well-being of all people and the planet. A social purpose statement is tied to the core of the organization and is essential to its culture and how it operates. 

There are many benefits and a strong business case for associations like CREA to be purpose-driven, including: 

• ensuring long-term relevance; 
• demonstrating leadership; 
• raising brand visibility and enhancing reputation; 
• attracting and engaging members; 
• fostering collaboration with partners; 
• attracting board members and staff; and 
• supporting members in their own quests for purpose.

CREA’s new social purpose statement

Two years ago, following direction from the CREA Board of Directors, CREA’s ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) Committee set out to define a social purpose for the association. The Committee engaged leading Canadian social purpose expert Mary Ellen Schaafsma of Purpose Pathways Consulting for guidance and oversaw an eight-month process that involved consultation, discussion, and collaboration with fellow REALTORS®, board and association staff, and external stakeholders. 

Through engaging workshops and interviews, these members and stakeholders were consulted on what CREA and its membership offer the world, what the world needs, and the intersection between the two. They were asked for insights on how CREA could use its core competencies and assets to make the best possible impact for the benefit of its REALTOR® members, their businesses, their communities, and the world around them. The input they provided was analyzed and core themes emerged, which were then refined into an overarching statement and underlying narrative.

In early 2024, CREA unveiled its new social purpose statement: CREA opens doors to thriving futures for all, beginning with home. It’s premised on four fundamental beliefs:

1. housing is a human right; 
2. home fosters human dignity and belonging; 
3. a healthy environment is critical to a thriving future; and 
4. collaboration is the key to unlocking positive change. 

CREA’s purpose journey continues

While the activation and integration of CREA’s new social purpose will be a long-term journey, CREA’s volunteer leaders are already appreciating the preliminary impact of this new “North Star” for the association.

For Amar Badh Singh, ESG Committee member, it validates his own personal purpose and strengthens his feeling of connection with the greater REALTOR® community. “For me, being a REALTOR® has always been about more than just helping clients buy and sell homes,” Badh explains. “CREA’s new social purpose really resonates with me and inspires me to continue doing my part to build community rooted in resilience and optimism.”

For James Mabey, CREA Board Chair, social purpose has already proved to be a valuable decision lens and reminder of our association’s values. “Our new social purpose statement helps expand our Board’s thinking about what we REALTORS®, our stakeholders, and our partners can do together to make the positive changes we want to see in the world. We added the social purpose statement at the top of every Board meeting agenda package, apply it to key discussions at the board table, and we’re looking forward to having it front and centre during our strategic planning later this year.”

The announcement of CREA’s new social purpose has also drawn attention from outside of the industry. “CREA has taken a bold step by adopting their new purpose,” says Coro Strandberg, President of Strandberg Consulting and one of the Founders of the Canadian Purpose Economy Project, which aims to accelerate Canada’s transition to the purpose-driven economy. “This could pave the way for social purpose to flourish in the real estate sector, driving social outcomes in communities, one homeowner at a time.”

Learn More

To follow CREA’s social purpose journey and learn about ways to get involved, visit CREA.ca/purpose.

Every month, Kate Teves, HR consultant, recruiter and founder of The HR Pro, answers Realtors’ questions about anything and everything related to human resources. Have a question for Kate? Send us an email, or leave a comment below! 

Question: Dear Kate, what’s the secret to running a truly successful brokerage?

Kate: I often get asked a version of this question by both aspiring real estate professionals and broker-owners and although we know there is no singular trait/role that works for all, one trend has become crystal clear: brokerages and teams that invest in an agent success manager (ASM) consistently outperform those that don’t. 

Recruitment, retention, reputation, and true agent success—all see measurable improvements and in this industry, measurable improvements are as coveted as a prime waterfront listing.

How does this impact the broker of record role?

While it was widely accepted that the broker of record (BoR) must be an equal parts compliance officer, on-demand agent support, marketing manager, business development guru and mentor,  it is seldom possible for one person to be excellent at all things at once.  

The emergence of the ASM role allows a BoR to truly focus on traditional responsibilities of overseeing all transactions within a brokerage, ensuring adherence to legal standards and supervising agents to maintain ethical conduct—safeguarding both client interests and the brokerage’s integrity. 

With the advancement of technology and a focus on agent-centric models, the ASM role has been quickly gaining prominence from coast to coast. ASMs act as primary points of contact for agents, providing support, training, and resources to enhance agent performance and client satisfaction. 

Their responsibilities often include:

• Building relationships: Developing strong personal connections with agents to understand their needs and goals.
  • Curating a personalized plan for each agent based on their strengths and existing circle of influence.
• Providing real-time support: Offering immediate assistance to agents, ensuring they can effectively serve their clients by reviewing contracts and offers, supporting with clause writing, and assisting during negotiations.
• Leveraging technology: Helping agents utilize the latest tools and platforms to streamline transactions and marketing efforts. 
  • Training them on the benefits of using a CRM
• Mentorship:  conducting live and online training on ever-changing documents, regulations and best business practices.
• Accountability:  An ASM often acts as an accountability partner by having consistent meetings with the agent and keeping their finger on the pulse of their individual business.

Recruitment: First impressions matter (and last)

If you know me personally you would have heard me say this often, “Recruitment is like dating—it’s about making a great first impression but then also having the substance to maintain the relationship.” 

In brokerages with ASMs, candidates are wooed by the promise of ongoing mentorship, personalized support, and a clear path to achieving their goals. This isn’t just anecdotal. According to a 2023 survey by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), brokerages offering structured mentorship programs—often led by ASMs—reported a 22 per cent increase in applications from top-tier agents compared to those that did not.

Without an ASM, recruitment often feels like speed dating: quick, chaotic, and with little follow-up. Agents might join, but without someone dedicated to onboarding and goal-setting, they’re more likely to look for other options within a year.

Retention: Keeping the band together

Retention is where the rubber meets the road. Real estate has one of the highest turnover rates of any industry, with the average agent switching brokerages every three to five years. However, brokerages with ASMs flip the script. By providing consistent coaching, recognizing achievements, and offering solutions to day-to-day challenges, these brokerages see turnover rates drop by up to 40 per cent.

Let’s face it: no one likes feeling like just another cog in the machine. An ASM ensures agents feel valued and supported, which translates to loyalty. Think of it like having a gym buddy—you’re far less likely to skip leg day (or, in this case, switch brokerages) when someone’s cheering you on.

Reputation: Word gets around

In business, reputation is everything. Brokerages with ASMs gain a reputation as places where agents thrive. CREA’s 2022 report noted that brokerages with dedicated agent support roles are 35 per cent more likely to be recommended by their agents to peers and isn’t that ultimately the best compliment and the easiest way to grow?

Contrast that with brokerages without ASMs. Agents in these environments often describe feeling adrift, which inevitably finds its way into conversations—and not the good kind. One agent’s frustration at a networking event can snowball into a reputation problem that’s harder to fix than a deal that’s fallen through.

True agent success: Beyond transactions

Finally, let’s talk about what really matters—agent success. Brokerages with ASMs don’t just focus on helping agents close deals; they focus on helping agents build careers. This holistic approach includes goal-setting, skill-building, and even work-life balance (yes, even real estate agents need balance).

The numbers speak for themselves: brokerages with ASMs see an average 15 per cent increase in agent earnings within the first year, according to a 2023 study by the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA). Agents are more confident, productive, and satisfied—and it shows in their results.

So if you are an agent looking for your next brokerage, look for one that invested in a role to dedicate to your success.  If you are a brokerage or team leader pondering whether to invest in an ASM, the answer is clear. Your recruitment numbers will thank you. Your retention rates will applaud you. Your reputation will shine. And most importantly, your agents will thrive.

CREA released their December statistics along with their hallmark annual optimism heading into January. The big question on everyone’s mind is whether or not that optimism is warranted moving into 2025’s real estate market. 

CREA also seems to feel that we can see a resurrection of volume (the number of homes sold in 2025) without prices rising to the point of unaffordability. 

I think they might be right. At this point, people are buying homes again because they can afford to. As long as that doesn’t change, 2025 should be a good year for Realtors, even if it’s not a good year for the homeowners hoping their house prices go up. 

We should certainly hope to see some life in the resale market, given that new condo sales in 2024 were the lowest they’ve been since 1996, according to a recent report from Urbanation.

Source: Urbanation

Should this housing correction continue along its path, it looks like we’re in about the third or fourth inning here, and it’ll be a while until we see house prices trend upwards again in a meaningful way. BMO recently visualized this in the excellent chart below.

As we close the books on 2024, it’s worth reflecting on the Canadian housing market’s performance, particularly during its quieter December period. After a remarkable fall rebound, the market saw sales activity dip 5.8 per cent in December compared to November. 

At first glance, this might seem like a retreat, but dig deeper, and the picture tells a different story—a market poised for a potentially significant shift this coming spring.

Much like a second-period intermission, December’s slowdown feels more like a pause than an end. Despite the dip, sales were still 13 per cent above where they stood in May 2024, just before the Bank of Canada made its first interest rate cut in June. 

In fact, the fourth quarter was among the strongest in the past 20 years (excluding the pandemic), showing the resilience of the Canadian housing market even amid affordability challenges and economic uncertainty.

A supply story, not a demand story

The narrative driving December’s cooling wasn’t a lack of buyers—it was a scarcity of homes for sale. Nationally, new listings fell 1.7 per cent month-over-month, marking the third consecutive decline after a September surge. 

The result? A market where potential buyers found themselves facing limited options, even as affordability began to improve. Faced with this challenge, many buyers may have pushed their purchase to Spring 2025, which fuelled CREA’s belief in a “pent-up demand” scenario in the year’s first quarter. 

The bigger question on my mind is whether or not we could see a “pent-up supply” scenario as well, given the market is facing a few key factors:

• The impact of a trade war (Bank of Canada is predicting as much as a -6 per cent impact)
• Rising unemployment (albeit surprisingly strong in December)
• A change in government that promises less government jobs and spending
• Increasing purpose-built rental supply competing with investors
• Historically high jump in supply from completions in 2024 and 2025
• A record number of mortgages renewing at higher interest rates 
• To me, the pent-up supply argument could be stronger than the one for pent-up demand.
  
  

Absorption is normal, not “strong” 

The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a key indicator of market balance, eased back to 56.9 per cent in December from a 17-month high of 59.3 per cent in November. For context, this figure hovers near the long-term average of 55 per cent, reinforcing the idea that we’re still in a relatively balanced market. Yet, with inventory levels well below historical norms—128,000 properties listed nationally, compared to a long-term average of 150,000—buyers remain at a slight disadvantage.

Affordability: A fragile silver lining

One of the more optimistic takeaways from CREA’s December data is the indication of modest improvements in housing affordability. Mortgage payments as a percentage of income (MPPI) have begun to decline, supported in part by the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts earlier in the year. This relief has allowed more buyers to consider entering the market, particularly in regions where prices have stabilized.

However, this silver lining comes with caveats. The national average sale price rose 2.5 per cent year-over-year to $676,640, and the MLS HPI edged up 0.3 per cent month-over-month. While these price increases are smaller than those seen in previous years, they could still erode the modest affordability gains if household incomes do not keep pace. In short, any improvement in affordability remains precarious.

Adding to the uncertainty are broader economic pressures. Rising unemployment and potential government hiring cuts loom as risks that could dampen affordability this year. These factors may offset the positive effects of declining mortgage payment costs, particularly if interest rate cuts slow or stall.

The forecast remains uncertain: will sustained rate reductions and stable home prices bolster affordability, or will economic pressures push it further out of reach for many Canadians? For now, the improvements in affordability offer a glimmer of hope, but the coming months will reveal whether that hope is sustainable or fleeting.

The role of inventory in 2024’s narrative

A closer look at inventory trends highlights why 2024’s market defied expectations in certain months while tapering off in December. After peaking in September, new listings steadily declined over the fall, creating a bottleneck that frustrated buyers eager to capitalize on improved affordability. By December, there were just 3.9 months of inventory on the market—a slight increase from November’s 3.6 months but still well below the long-term average of five months.

This constrained inventory helped keep prices relatively stable, even as sales activity slowed. Sellers, wary of accepting lower offers, chose to hold firm or delay listing altogether, contributing to a stalemate in the market. This dynamic was particularly evident in urban centers like Metro Vancouver, where the market displayed modest stability with a 0.7 per cent month-over-month price increase and steady demand. The limited flexibility in prices on both sides reflects the cautious behaviour of buyers and sellers alike, highlighting the ongoing challenges of navigating a market shaped by tight inventory.

Spring 2025: The perfect storm for a demand surge?

Looking ahead, spring 2025 could mark a turning point. As snow melts and sellers bring new properties to market, demand is expected to unleash in a big way. Historical patterns suggest that real estate springs to life earlier than anticipated, and this year should be no different. 

CREA anticipates a notable uptick in activity for 2025, with an estimated 532,704 residential properties expected to change hands through Canadian MLS—a substantial 8.6 per cent jump over 2024. Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, predicts that the anticipated bottoming out of interest rates will encourage more sellers to list their homes, further fueling the surge in activity.

The market conditions brewing this spring could create opportunities not seen in years, particularly if affordability continues to improve.

How interest rates shape the 2025 outlook

Interest rates remain the wild card. The Bank of Canada’s decision to cut rates in June 2024 provided a much-needed boost to affordability, but further reductions will be critical to sustaining momentum. Lower interest rates could not only draw more buyers into the market but also encourage sellers to list properties that were previously held back due to unfavourable market conditions.

However, the timing and scale of rate adjustments will play a pivotal role. A delay in cuts could dampen the anticipated spring surge, while aggressive reductions could reignite fears of another housing bubble. Policymakers will need to strike a delicate balance to support market stability without overcorrecting.

The long road to balanced housing

Despite the promise of greener pastures, structural challenges in the Canadian housing market remain unresolved. Inventory levels are still below historical averages, and the gap between buyer expectations and seller realities shows no signs of closing quickly. 

Adding to these challenges, recent announcements regarding reductions in immigration targets could have a significant impact on housing demand. Canada has relied heavily on immigration to drive population growth, which in turn fuels housing market activity. With immigration levels curtailed, the anticipated surge in demand may soften, potentially easing pressure on housing supply but also creating uncertainty for developers and long-term market stability. Lower immigration could temper price growth in some regions, but it also risks stalling construction projects and reducing economic momentum tied to new arrivals.

The chart below highlights the municipalities with the highest population changes in 2024 compared to 2023, a trend heavily influenced by the surge in international students. This demographic has significantly contributed to local rental and housing demand. Such growth may not be as pronounced in the coming years.

Source: valery.ca 

What December tells us

While December 2024 wasn’t the blockbuster end to the year some might have hoped for, it offers valuable insights into the market’s current state and future trajectory. Inventory levels remain tight but are improving, prices are stabilizing, and the balance between buyers and sellers is holding steady.

The question lingers: will the spring market deliver the long-awaited relief buyers crave, or will it usher in another cycle of rising prices? One thing is clear—2024 stands as a transitional year—neither a full recovery nor a complete correction. It offered glimpses of stability but left plenty of unanswered questions for 2025. 

The calm before the storm? Perhaps. But in Canadian real estate, the only constant is change.

It’s official—Realtor.ca is now a standalone, wholly-owned taxable subsidiary of the Canadian Real Estate Association. On Jan. 6, the entity was legally formed and governance now falls to its transition board of directors.  

As part of the change, Patrick Pichette, who has served as vice president of Realtor.ca for over six years, has been named interim CEO following the board’s first meeting earlier this week.

The restructuring is intended to provide Realtor.ca with greater operational flexibility, enabling the platform to pursue additional revenue opportunities and invest in further development, CREA says. 

“I’m honoured to continue to lead the exceptional Realtor.ca team and look forward to building on the incredible momentum of the past several years. REALTOR.ca is an indispensable resource and I believe deeply in the value the platform generates for the Canadian real estate ecosystem,” says Pichette.

The national association explains the transition to a taxable subsidiary comes in response to growing competition, evolving consumer expectations and increasing operational costs. CREA says it aims to reduce its reliance on member dues while maintaining Realtor ownership and reinvesting profits into the platform.

As the real estate industry gets more competitive and the market more restrictive, some brokerages are offering clients reduced, flat-fee commissions or cash-back up front as financial assistance.

While not a new business model, amid the National Association of Realtors settlement in the United States concerning several commission lawsuits, and Canada’s Competition Bureau investigation into the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)’s commission rules, it’s one that’s changing the industry. 

Consumers are paying attention and demanding more, especially with affordability and higher interest rates impacting their buying power.

‘Opportunity to redefine value agents bring’ and help consumers retain equity

“The market (and) financial situations are changing. People are going through hardship. They want an alternative and innovation in the industry,” insists Ishtiaq Ahmed, broker of record for Zown. He feels that although the traditional commission model worked in the past, buyers and sellers today expect more flexibility and want to retain as much of their equity as possible.

Ahmed notes buyers are savvier than they used to be. This means less work for the agents involved, so their role has evolved with the shift. This is how Zown passes on savings to its clients.

The company charges a 2.5 per cent commission to the seller and retains a portion of it, with the rest going into the buyer’s pocket. Depending on the deal, for a $1 million property, this might be 1.0 to 2.0 per cent.

Ahmed says Zown sees the opportunity to redefine the value agents bring. “Our goal is to make homeownership more accessible, especially for first-time buyers, given current market conditions. It’s very hard to get into the market and every dollar counts,” he explains.

Traditional vs discount brokerages: ‘It’s a whole different world’

However, many agents oppose this newer business model. “Some (consumers) might think Realtors are all the same. The reality is we’re not—just like in any profession, there are different levels and you get what you pay for,” asserts Sean Miller, agent with Property.ca.

Miller argues the best agents aren’t cutting their commissions because they offer a lot of value, experience and resources with marketing, strategy and negotiation. “There’s no way we can compete (with each other) because we bring a whole different level of service—from marketing like video advertising to photography and staging.”

He says these services cost a lot of money that simply isn’t available when commissions are cut, and that full-service brokerages come with a more personalized approach and a team of people. “It’s a whole different world.”

But Miller states that it’s all about fit, and some people don’t see the value in what agents bring to the table. “There’s nothing wrong with that … Some people see short-term value more than long-term potential (and) not everybody has the budget or expectations a top-performing agent warrants.”

Clients doing more work means money saved and quicker closings

Miller believes that brokerages offering reduced fees are more volume-based and complete deals faster than traditional brokerages. Indeed, Ahmed says his team does more deals than it would under the traditional model.

Since January 2023, Zown has sold more than 200 homes. However, Ahmed also notes that Zown offers full service from skilled, experienced agents, which is possible because the agents do less work.

He credits online tools like Realtor.ca and buyers finding properties themselves for reducing the need for numerous property showings. Zown agents adjust their approach to reflect this, saving time and money for everyone: it used to take about eight weeks to close a deal, but that deal can now close in two weeks, sometimes with just one or two property showings, he explains.

However, the agents still perform typical tasks like reviewing the property’s history, guiding buyers through the home inspection and presenting comparables.

Resistance to change or concern over negotiation performance?

While Ahmed recognizes the industry is resistant to change, his team feels consumers’ pushback. He says many in the industry feel Zown and others like it aren’t helping but “are trying to destroy a model they’re in full control of. They don’t want to change the status quo.”

Miller instead thinks of it in terms of the negotiation process. “If they can’t negotiate their own commissions, how well are they negotiating their clients’ biggest asset? If they’re giving away their money, they’ll do the same with the property.”

He questions if buyers are getting the best deal or if the agent will want to move on quickly because they’re in a volume-based business. “What people don’t realize is how much they’re potentially leaving on the table.”

Miller offers this advice to his clients or those who ask him to lower his fees: “We’re talking about the most significant sale or purchase of your life, and it makes sense to use somebody with a great track record who can negotiate properly and will make you potentially tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars more.”

But he doesn’t blame people for asking. “As a seller, I’d ask that question too. It’s how we respond that makes them feel comfortable about why we don’t (discount).”

The industry’s take

CREA says that while it doesn’t provide guidance with commissions, Realtors are offering their services in new and interesting ways and consumers can shop for representation that works best for them.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) takes a similar stance, having no involvement or engagement in discussions around Realtors’ fees for service.

“There are diverse business models and service levels available to consumers from Realtors and conversations around service levels and fees are a discussion to be had between the consumer and their Realtor,” says TRREB Immediate Past President Jennifer Pearce. “Consumers have choice in how they engage in real estate transactions, and TRREB supports an environment of free and open competition.”

To mark 35 years of Real Estate Magazine, we’re sharing articles from past issues. This article appeared in issue #91 in January 1997 and was written by Kathy Bevan and Susan Doran.

How will real estate fare this year? What changes are in store for the industry itself? REM’s Kathy Bevan and Susan Doran asked real estate experts across the country for their predictions.

Tom Bosley

President, Canadian Real Estate Association
Toronto

“I think 1997 should generally be the same or slightly better than 1996, and 1996 was a pretty good year. We’re still seeing markets that are not as much interest-rate driven as consumer confidence-driven, but we have too many strengths going for us right now to have anything but a good market. Volume should be up by about three per cent; prices may go up by about two to three per cent in some parts of the country. We’re going to see a shortage of good product create a bit of a vacuum in some parts of the country as well.

“Technology will still have the greatest impact on our industry this year. The number of salespeople leaving the industry will stabilize, and we’ll see younger ones starting to take over a greater share of the market. One good reason for that will be their better understanding of technology and how it can help them do business better. This has never been an easy industry in which to make money, and that won’t change even with better markets, so salespeople need to use all the tools available to them.

“We’re seeing a number of provinces now with self- or co-regulation, and that should include Ontario within a year. That has moved our industry toward stronger educational requirements for Realtors. That’s good for everyone because it means stronger professional standards for our industry.”

Don Lawby

President, Century 21 Canada
Vancouver

“In markets across Canada, we’re expecting a good spring and a strong fall because of the economic conditions and current interest rates. We’re going to see a continued recovery in eastern Canada, particularly Ontario, with four to six percent price increases. Quebec should see a fairly good market this year too, but no price increases. Most other areas should see pretty stable prices. Atlantic Canada, Manitoba, Alberta, and Saskatchewan we see performing fairly much as they did last year. The lower mainland area of B.C. will be a trouble spot because the prices continue to be too high for the houses on the market here. We’re also experiencing some political uncertainty provincially, which is being reflected in a lack of consumer confidence.

“The issue that will have the most impact on our industry this year will be the increasing competition between real estate companies. We will continue to see organizations move to more recognized national names. The real estate business has been through some tough times, and it will continue to be a tough business to be in. Brokerages will see more pressure to run financially sound operations, while salespeople continue to press for the best deal they can get. We’ll see continued movement by some companies, ourselves included, toward the one-stop shopping approach to serving consumers—making transactions as convenient as possible for everyone concerned. The impact from this movement won’t be immediate, but it will be felt over time.”

Tom Clark

Vice-President & COO, HomeLife Realty Services
Toronto

“We’re expecting more of the same in 1997—a good market overall. The emergence of first-time buyers should continue, with stable interest rates and good affordability. Alongside that, we expect to see that a significant number of former first-time buyers will be moving into their second homes this year. That should have a very positive ripple effect on the market.

“I don’t think there will be a significant influx of new salespeople entering our business, although a number who have been outside the industry for a while may re-enter this year. I think the industry as a whole will still see some shrinkage this year. There will also be a lot of talking behind the scenes between real estate companies regarding mergers and consolidations.

“The factor that continues to have the greatest impact on our industry is computerization—Internet, Intranet, email and so on. All of these communication tools will result in some innovative ways of marketing. Notwithstanding all of this technology, however, brokerages will still have to provide a very professional level of service to consumers—that’s the real bottom line. We need to continue to educate the public about the benefits of home ownership, and the services we have to offer.”

Gilles Lauzon

President, Countrywide Realty Quebec
Gatineau, Quebec

“I expect residential real estate will be good next year, but with only a small increase, if any. This year (1996) was better than 1995; it would be impossible to be worse, and 1997 should be the same or better than 1996.

“In the residential market in this area, homes under $100,000 are selling very well. The market segment of $100,000 to $150,000 is good, but not great. Over that, it’s tougher. Homes priced over $200,000 are only about six or seven percent of the market. The average house price in the area is about $88,000.

“The commercial market is a longer story. Prices are very low. But in this region, things are growing fast because of the many big chains that are opening up in Gatineau—Price Club, Walmart, Canadian Tire, Winners, Zellers. Over two million square feet of commercial space has opened up in the past 18 months. But for small companies, business is not so good—there is too much competition from the big guys. So the prices of small commercial buildings are going down.

“The presence of the federal government in nearby Ottawa where there’s been lots of job cutting will not have a positive effect on the market here—although the government already has cut what it’s going to cut, I think. But on the other hand we have all the new commercial development in the area, so the market will be stable next year.”

Colum Bastable

President and CEO, Royal LePage Real Estate
Toronto

“The continuing low interest rates are obviously good for residential markets across the country, and they seem to be giving everyone a boost in confidence. We’re expecting these low rates to continue at least into mid-1997.

“…we should see a good year. We should also see some price increases.

“With the continuing low interest rates, and given the support that we’ve seen for housing in the new federal budget, we have strong supporting demand, so prices could edge up one or two percent in parts of the country. In Ontario, the markets are recovering from the recession; prices are not yet at their peak but continue to rise in certain pockets like Toronto. For the West, we’re looking at a mixed bag. Vancouver remains active but affordability remains an issue, which has led to some softening of the market.

“There are also some consolidations taking place in the U.S., and HFS is shifting its focus away from real estate toward the hospitality industry. These moves may bring new ideas and partnerships into Canada, helping with marketing or business efficiencies. But ultimately, consumers are the ones who will benefit most from competition and innovation as the markets continue to evolve.”

Harold Waddell

President and CEO, Realty World Canada
Burnaby, B.C.

“Our brokers and sales associates are predicting this will be a good year across the board for real estate in Canada. We don’t expect much of an increase in prices across the country, with a few exceptions—perhaps one to two percent, perhaps three percent in certain areas.

“In B.C., we’re predicting tremendous growth, good growth in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba and a resurgence in Ontario. What we should see everywhere are good, steady markets, which overall are a lot healthier than the wild rides we’ve seen in the past.

“I think we’ll continue to see a great impact from first-time buyers, and baby boomers paying off debts. We’ll need a lot of new product to meet increasing demand. I suspect we’ll continue to see some shrinkage in the numbers of salespeople working in our industry, and that will continue over the next five years or so.

“Technology will continue to have an impact on how our industry performs. The Internet is just coming into its own with salespeople and brokers, and we’ll all have to keep on the cutting edge to take advantage of everything technology has to offer.”

John Bearden

President, Coldwell Banker Affiliates of Canada
Toronto

“The revival in the market is going to continue in a strong way this year. Affordability is the best we’ve seen in a long time, and there’s a strengthening happening in consumer spending that I predict could be some eight percent higher than spending last year. Prices should move up about two and a half percent, and mortgage rates might move downward another quarter to half a point over the year. We’re going to continue to see a real strength in first-time homebuyers, and I think that could lead to an exceptionally strong move-up market as well, and those two segments will be the primary impetus for our markets this year.

“There are three factors I believe will impact our industry in 1997: technology, ongoing consolidation at all levels within the industry; and the choices salespeople themselves will be making. Technology’s importance is really how it is integrated into the service we’re providing to our customers. Over the next two years, salespeople are going to be increasingly inclined to access the Internet and use technology (such as laptops) right in the face of their customers.

“Consolidation of real estate firms, and salespeople within those firms, will be a strong factor in how our industry performs this year. Brokers looking for ways to increase their margins will continue to consolidate, merge, and acquire. The top 10 to 15 percent of salespeople will capture a larger share of transactions than ever before. Salespeople will also be taking a hard look at the services their brokers provide and the costs they incur. They will be seeking to better themselves through concise, contemporary learning opportunities to get every edge they can.”

Bob Cherot Jr.

President and CEO, Re/Max of Western Canada
Kelowna, B.C.

“We’re expecting a good year in ’97, with markets in Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba leading the pack. B.C. should have a more normal market than last year—a good market, without extremes.

“Alberta should really be our shining star, especially in terms of sales. Markets there are being led by Calgary, where CP’s new corporate headquarters and thriving oil and gas companies are having a positive effect. In Winnipeg, condo developments are really taking off. There and in Saskatchewan, people are taking a second look at where their dollars go when they’re about to retire. They’re thinking about downsizing, rather than moving away, and taking winter holidays in the sunny south when it’s too cold up here.

“As for impact on our industry this year, in a word: technology. It seems whenever you get close to the turn of a century, something major changes. For us, that change is technology. We’ve got teenagers surfing the Internet. They’ll be out in the workplace soon and leading change. If real estate salespeople and brokers don’t keep themselves abreast of these developments, we’re all in trouble. This doesn’t just mean knowing how to use the tools but understanding how to leverage them effectively to serve clients better.”

It’s been an unusually busy fall for much of Canada’s housing market and some regions are experiencing extraordinary activity into December, sparking optimism for 2025. 

What’s buoying that sense of optimism is a number of policy decisions on the federal level that many say will continue to boost the market in 2025. 

Those include the continued easing of interest rates by the Bank of Canada and measures by the federal government in “delivering the boldest mortgage reforms in decades” to make it easier for people to buy homes.

Just how solid and healthy is the market?

November by the numbers 

Recent data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association showed that overall MLS sales in Canada of 37,855 in November were up 26 per cent from a year ago, led by whopping annual increases of 47 per cent in Montreal, 38.6 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area and 28.6 per cent in the Greater Vancouver Area.

Marc Lefrancois, broker/co-owner with Equipe Lefrancois in Montreal, said the market is bouncing back after a tumultuous 18 months. After the pandemic, sales volume dropped drastically. Recovery began last January. But September and October began to see the recovery in full swing.

“Instead of having a very typical quiet November and December, we’re actually really busy right now,” he said. “Obviously Montreal having a lower price point than Toronto or Vancouver creates a bigger mass of people that are going back to buying homes or creating their property.

“Right now, we’re busy as crazy. I’m a little scared and worried because I think my holiday season is going to be crap. But we’re really busy right now.”

Supply vs. demand

Lefrancois explained that, yes, there are many buyers coming to the market but there are also sellers, adding he’s done a record number of home valuations for December.  People are buying now because they believe prices are going to go up and they will have to pay more next year. Sellers are coming onto the market not to miss out on the demand. 

And while there are sellers, there aren’t enough.  “Prices are starting to go up again. The problem is that supply isn’t there,” he added.

Busiest December in a decade…for some

“The only year I can compare (November and December this year) is 2011. For a while, U.S. banks were in jeopardy and everybody was stressed out about the U.S. banking system (would) collapse. In Montreal, volumes went down to zero because people were worried about what was going to happen. When they realized the banks weren’t going to collapse, we got really busy. I remember that holiday period I was at the office every single day except for the 25th and the 1st. It looks and feels like that right now. The month of December has been the busiest probably in at least the last 10 years for sure.”

He said he usually lists three to four homes at the beginning of January, but this year he’s looking at 10 or 12.

Tim Hill, with Re/Max All Points Realty based in New Westminster. B.C., said the last four weeks have been busier than normal for this time of year, adding last year’s Fall market was rough.

“In the trenches here this year, I’m surprisingly busy right now. Typically middle of December we’re really quiet. Usually the beginning of December it slows down but the last four weeks have been super busy. People have been making offers, and getting deals done. The ones that are doing it are doing it in anticipation of further rate cuts next year and thinking to themselves that if they can get ahead of that curve and get in or get moved before there’s any potential of madness it will just be a calmer move and if the numbers make sense why not do it now, why wait basically,”  he explained.

He said there’s a pause right now in sellers listing their homes as they’re gearing up to go to the market at the beginning of January.

But it’s not the same in other cities. Randy Ryalls, Royal LePage Sterling Realty in Port Moody, B.C., said December hasn’t been a continuation of November in his market.

“But that’s not unusual. Things tend to slow down in December. People tend to turn their attention to Christmas. Our October was our best month and then November continued on that trend but to a lesser degree. Our October was up about 32 per cent over October 2023. November dropped off a little bit as is kind of usual this time year. December is certainly quieter in our experience,” he said, adding sales are probably just under the 10-year average.

“For the first time in a long time, at least in Greater Vancouver, we actually have probably a sufficient amount of inventory to not really get into a serious bottleneck.” – Randy Ryalls

Though Ryalls believes 2025 is going to be very busy as things are lining up that way with new lending rules to expand the market which is important to an expensive market like Vancouver. 

“For the first time in a long time, at least in Greater Vancouver, we actually have probably a sufficient amount of inventory to not really get into a serious bottleneck,” said Ryalls, adding there’s probably about two years of pent-up demand in the market.

Cameron Forbes, with Re/max Realtron Realty in the GTA, said sales so far this month are higher than a year ago. 

“It will be a month where unit sales are up just like October and November. I’m not sure it will be 40 per cent but 20, 30 per cent for sure. So the market is more active than December 2023. December is normally a slower month…but because we’ve had rate decreases it certainly has helped more buyers ask the question is now the time to buy, should I be back in the market, what can I afford,” he said.

Forbes expects increases in monthly sales into the New Year.

Positive outlook for 2025

Brayden Irwin, Broker with the Lome Irwin Team in Toronto, affiliated with Royal LePage, said there’s a much more positive outlook on the market and on the cost of debt, which obviously plays a big factor for a lot of people and how comfortable they are taking on an investment of this size and whether they can afford it. 

Prices have softened from 2022 highs and interest rates have likely peaked, so now’s probably a good time to buy if people want to try and get ahead of what could be a stronger spring market with more competition. 

“That’s probably what’s kind of fueled the market in 2024. I think a lot of people were expecting earlier on in the year that interest rates were going to come down sooner than they did and so that forecast kept getting pushed out, pushed out, pushed out, but obviously over the last three interest rate announcements they’ve accelerated the amount that they’re decreasing them each announcement,” added Irwin. 

He said the mortgage reforms are intended to make housing more accessible allowing more people to be able to participate.

“And if more people are participating and we’re not able to keep up with the supply, then that should lead to an increase in prices. I think that is what most people are anticipating is going to happen over the next year.  So pretty positive outlook when you’re looking forward.”

A “tremendously busy December for sales” for Calgary Realtor

Joel Semmens, with Re/Max House of Real Estate in Calgary, said his sales, which concentrate on higher-end and inner-city properties, experienced a slight pullback in volume from September to November.

“But oddly December we’ve been run off our feet again in terms of sales. It was almost like a bit of a delayed market. I think the interest rate cut as another half a point has kind of helped fuel the market back up and it’s been a really tremendously busy December for sales,” he explained. “Busier than we typically get.

“I think we’re going to have a very busy market starting by mid-February. I think we’ll see an uprise in terms of people bringing their houses to the market to beat the spring and summer rush. I think we’re going to see more inventory coming to the market in February and March…It’s going to be a strong market.”

Renata Reid, senior vice president of Sales with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada in Calgary, says she’s seeing a “phenomenal” December, “with multiple offers still happening right now, which is unusual for this time of year.”

Reid adds, “And our market was already crazy. It’s going to be a really hot market for Calgary going forward.”

The Habistat was co-founded by self-professed data and charts lover Daniel Foch, chief real estate officer at Vaughan, Ont.-based Valery.ca (and REM columnist), to make it easier to create charts and tables that he previously had to create manually.

“Originally, I did it to solve the problem—it was taking me too long to create these charts. I said, ‘There’s got to be a fix for this.’” 

“I’m probably one of the leading agents who makes charts as my source of content. That’s how I get clients and build trust,” says Foch.

Foch ended up meeting two data scientists on Twitter with whom he teamed up to develop The Habistat. The three “spent quite a bit of our own money” to develop The Habistat but Foch would not provide dollar figures.

“I’m probably one of the leading agents who makes charts as my source of content. That’s how I get clients and build trust,” Foch says. “But to do that would take me hundreds of hours of manual work. Now, I don’t have to do that work, which is a huge time saver for me.”

Foch says The Habistat enables Realtors to access data in an easier fashion than they could previously and to then communicate that data clearly to clients or on their social media.

Streamlined data access

The Habistat is available in a dashboard format that gives Realtors instant access to real-time data on what’s happening in the housing market.

“There is a need to give clients better advice,” and The Habistat enables Realtors to go into a lot more granular detail, getting as close as a neighbourhood level to provide information like sales price by location or sales volume by property type. 

Among other things, The Habistat can track market fluctuations, analyze property values, identify growing markets and access new methods of finding comparables and property history.

“Before, you kind of had access to the data, but to compile it manually and create charts is not something an agent would want to do.”

From the private sector to PropTx

Foch and his co-founders originally ran The Habistat as a private sector enterprise. They used publicly available CREA and TRREB data to provide precise information on what was going on in the housing market

However, TRREB did not take kindly to its data being used.

The Habistat “wasn’t compliant with TRREB’s data rules. That’s why we had to shut it down,” Foch says. “We worked over two or three years to become compliant with them and they basically licensed the product from us during that process.”

TRREB is now fully onboard. “The Habistat is a user-friendly tool helping Realtors navigate housing market data, providing value-added analyses and reports for buyers, sellers, landlords and tenants,” TRREB CEO John DiMichele said in a statement. 

The launch of The Habistat shows that the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) “continues to grow the lineup of technology tools available to Realtors using the PropTx MLS System,” DiMichele said.

Scaling for the future 

Among other things, DiMichele says The Habistat allows members to explore reports and dashboards for active and inactive listings, and easily produce comparisons based on different locations and home types. Customized map boundaries can be produced, and market activity reports can be created for individual condo buildings. 

DiMichele said the system will evolve and enhance market statistics, trends and overall property intelligence. 

PropTx, the wholly owned technology subsidiary of TRREB, now owns the global license for The Habistat, in a deal that was finalized by Foch’s two partners.  “I think the objective of PropTX is to scale it to other real estate boards,” Foch said. Most Ontario boards now subscribe to PropTx.

Training Realtors for data-driven success

While The Habistat does not currently produce real estate projections “that is something we’d like to include in the future,” Foch says

On the other hand, The Habistat does provide a clear picture of what’s happening now.  “Because it’s real-time data, whenever a data point is updated on TRREB, it’ll be reflected in the charts. You can spot a trend early if you’re trying to advise a client rather than having to wait for a monthly report to indicate that that trend exists.”

Although it will be easy to learn for people who are data-minded or analytical, “I think the average agent would probably require a little bit of training,” Foch adds. “I’m hoping to be doing some ongoing free training for the program in the new year.” 

Canadian real estate had all of the hallmarks of a great comeback story. Interest rates are falling. House prices are down from the peak. Affordability is returning to the market. The government was throwing policy at the housing problem, despite warnings from the Bank of Canada. It sounds like the setup for a great recovery.

The only question is… when do we get there?

Or, more aptly, “Are we there yet?”.

Instead of a familiar and predictable road, we’ve been left on a long and drawn out road trip. Countless familiar signs have passed us by, yielding no result. We’ve been stuck in a state of wondering, if, not when, in fact, we’d see any signs of recovery appear.

For years we’ve heard reports from the industry of “buyers on the sideline” waiting for some factor to change in the real estate market equation. It would appear that the factor is whether or not prices are going up or down.

“Buy the dip”

Is it possible you might see a rush of buyers trying their hand at the seemingly impossible task of buying the bottom of the market? The age-old advice about “time in the market, not timing the market” seems to be ringing in my ear. At a minimum, the idea might be “buying the expletive dip”, as popularized by Wall Street Bets. Since we don’t have an online community of options-trading degeneracy in Canada, we focussed our speculative fever on the housing market, until we couldn’t any longer.

And so, it appears when people said they’re waiting to see the “dip” or the “bottom” of the real estate market, they might have been looking in the rear-view mirror. This isn’t to say that the bottom is “in” per se. There just seem to be a lot more buyers after three months of consecutive growth in price and volume than there were during three months of declining price and volume.

This is the ironic part about the whole “market timing” thing. If you want to bottom-tick the market, you have to be buying on the way down. If you’re the buyer submitting below-market offers and pulling sales prices down, you create the dip— you don’t buy the dip.

You create the market, you don’t time the market.

By the numbers: Recovery, or relief rally?

Until last month, data hadn’t really indicated even the slightest chance at recovery. September appeared out of character, with the typical back-to-school rush surprisingly muted against the backdrop of the US election, breaking “fall market” seasonal norms to the downside. Staying true to this new and contrarian character, Canadian real estate now seems to be breaking seasonal norms to the upside, heading into November, a month when the market is typically slowing down toward the holiday season.

Should we see sustained upward pressure on the market heading into December, it would be reasonable to imagine that the market is seeing a resurrection of volume from lower rates, increased buying power, and optimism around new mortgage policy.

Increased buyer activity pushes sales higher

Source: CREA, Valery.ca 

According to CREA, national home sales climbed 2.8 per cent in November compared to October, marking the second consecutive month of gains and a cumulative 18.4 per cent rise since May. This jump comes after months of subdued activity earlier in 2024, which was largely blamed on lingering “higher for longer” interest rates.

With the Bank of Canada now slashing rates at a recession-ready pace, sidelined buyers have apparently been pulled back into the market, and the numbers show they’ve arrived in droves.

Not surprisingly, activity was strongest in Canada’s usual real estate powerhouses—Greater Toronto, Metro Vancouver, Calgary’ and Montreal. Smaller cities in Alberta and Ontario also reported double-digit increases in sales, indicating a broad-based uptick. Ontario seems to be back to its former glory of taking nearly half of the monthly dollar volume of sales. However, this surge in activity raises a critical question about whether it represents a genuine recovery or just another temporary spike driven by policy tweaks that artificially boost demand in an attempt to soften the blow of recession and unemployment in 2025. 

Realistically, this market looks a lot more like a typical year (see 2016 to 2019 above) but it feels high relative to last year’s lows, and low relative to the pandemic’s highs. 

Source: CREA, Claude, Valery.ca 

Sellers hold the upper hand

For those looking to sell, the market continues to tilt firmly in their favour. The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR), which measures market balance, rose to 59.2 per cent in November. That’s a significant jump from the 52 per cent to 53 per cent range seen earlier in the year, signalling a tightening market. With fewer new listings coming to market (down 0.8 per cent month-over-month), buyers are left to compete for an ever-shrinking pool of homes.

This imbalance is further reflected in the months of inventory metric, which fell to just 3.7 months nationally—the lowest in over a year. For context, a balanced market typically has 4 to 6 months of inventory. The current figure underscores the fact that supply simply isn’t keeping up with demand, making conditions increasingly competitive for buyers.

Prices “rise”… or did they?

Source: CREA, Valery.ca 

November saw the first notable increase in home prices in nearly 18 months. The National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) rose 0.6 per cent from October, while the actual national average sale price jumped by 7.4 per cent compared to November 2023. These price increases suggest that the demand surge is starting to put upward pressure on home values, particularly in urban centers and desirable smaller markets.

However, the market still shows early signs of recovery rather than runaway growth. While it’s easy to celebrate any price growth, the long-term trend still looks like the “flat market” I’ve been droning on about for the last few years. The HPI remains 1.2 per cent lower year-over-year, highlighting that despite rising demand, the market has not fully rebounded from the downturn caused by the interest rate hikes of 2022 and 2023, which reduced affordability and buyer confidence. This ongoing recovery remains fragile, with the market still vulnerable to external factors. Future rate changes, policy shifts, or economic uncertainty could easily disrupt the momentum.

High supply, high stakes

Source: CREA, Valery.ca 

CREA seems to feel that the inventory situation reveals a chronic problem: Canada’s housing supply continues to fall short of demand. By the end of November, there were just over 160,000 properties listed for sale nationally. While this is 8.9 per cent higher than a year ago, it remains well below the long-term average of 178,000. It seems the industry wants us to interpret this as a sign that we have a structural supply deficiency. On the contrary, it could also be interpreted as a lot of room to grow.

With all this considered, this is still the highest supply environment we’ve seen since the beginning of the pandemic, with a clearly visible and steep upward trend in active listings each year since the rate hiking cycle began.

Looking ahead, the fate of the Canadian real estate market may hinge heavily on the performance of the upcoming spring market. While recent momentum and lower interest rates have provided some optimism, several headwinds could still derail the recovery.

The traditional spring market typically sees the highest volume of transactions and often sets the tone for the rest of the year. However, mounting concerns about a potential recession, declining population growth rates, and rising unemployment could dampen buyer enthusiasm. These economic pressures might outweigh the positive effects of lower borrowing costs and increased affordability.

The key question remains whether the current momentum can build enough steam to overcome these challenges. Early indicators from December and January activity will be crucial in gauging whether this recovery has staying power or if it’s merely a temporary response to policy changes and rate cuts.

Final thoughts

It’s hard to shake a sense of deja vu. Time and time again, interest rate cuts are rolled out as a quick fix and a perceived boost to the housing market, only to exacerbate the underlying issues and kick the can down the road.

Yes, lower rates make borrowing more affordable in theory, but they do not solve the core disparity between income and house prices, negating the benefit for many buyers. Relaxed mortgage rules might help some secure financing, but they also prop up demand in a market already starved for supply.

For first-time buyers, the dream of homeownership remains elusive. Rising prices and dwindling inventory create significant challenges, forcing them to compete against wealthier buyers or investors. While sellers and existing homeowners may take comfort in the rising value of their properties, the broader reality is less optimistic, with a housing market that continues to deepen the divide between the haves and have-nots.