Metro Vancouver’s residential market in 2024 proved to be a mixed bag, falling short of optimistic forecasts set earlier in the year by Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR). While some gains were seen, they didn’t reach expectations, leaving some market watchers reassessing their expectations for 2025.

Missed sales targets

GVR released its H1 forecast for 2025, including a look at how 2024’s market compared to its forecast. At the start of last year, optimism was high. GVR predicted an 8 per cent increase in sales compared to 2023, with projections reaching 28,250 transactions by year-end. Ultimately the market closed the year with 26,561 sales, a 2 per cent rise over the previous year. The momentum, initially driven by reduced borrowing costs, faltered in the summer, curtailing overall performance.

Price gains under pressure

Similarly, price growth failed to reach expectations. The average residential price was forecasted to rise by 3 per cent in 2024, reaching  $1,320,000. Instead, the actual increase was half that—1.5 per cent, with the year-end average price settling at $1.3-million. Early gains in the year were eroded by growing inventory levels and weaker-than-expected sales.

“Despite numerous cuts to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate and subsequent reductions to borrowing costs throughout 2024, supply continued to outpace demand by year-end, eroding, but not fully erasing, the price gains which began the year,” the report notes.

Looking ahead to 2025

With 2024’s shortfalls as a backdrop, GVR’s forecast for 2025 maintains cautious optimism. Key drivers such as population growth, household formation and lower borrowing costs are expected to support the market. Political and economic uncertainties—including potential U.S. trade policies pose a risk to the housing market

Risks and wildcards

GVR’s modeling suggests that based on “preliminary analysis” proposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, if implemented, could create a drag on sales activity. The impact is expected to be short-lived, and “any negative impacts to home prices are likely to be modest and would most likely arise through the (potential) reduction in sales activity, rather than through any direct impacts arising from the tariffs themselves.”

Canada’s inevitable federal election could also derail GVR’s outlook for the region. “Political turmoil at the Canadian federal level along with the potential for a new Conservative government could yield policies negatively impacting the housing market, though new policies could also positively impact the market as well.”

Outlook for 2025

GVR economists see improved momentum heading into 2025 compared to last year, with lower borrowing costs anticipated to support demand.

“Our price forecasts for 2025 are again similar to those we expected in 2024, however the market now has the benefit of significantly lower borrowing costs to start the year than were available in 2024, which we believe should provide the necessary stimulus to reach our 2025 price forecasts.”

Residential sales are expected to reach 30,250—a 13.9 per cent increase over 2024, while the average home price is projected to grow 4.1 per cent—reaching $1,354,000. 

As with most forecast’s, GVR’s outlook for the year comes with a key caveat: a stronger-than-expected economic recovery could accelerate sales and price growth, while heightened inventory levels or recessionary pressures could dampen performance.

More Ontario Realtors now have access to more data as the PropTx MLS database expands to include listings from most boards in the province. 

PropTx, a wholly-owned and for-profit subsidiary of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), promises members access to a centralized MLS, a long-standing priority among Realtors, according to TRREB CEO John DiMichele. 

“This has been a strategic focus, and through the creation of PropTx, was a key mandate for the organization,” says DiMichele. “The participating boards and associations were essential collaborators, recognizing that working together benefits all Realtors. A unified MLS database ensures consistency and continuity as it matures.”

Participating boards and associations currently have access to the PropTx MLS system, with the final stages of data transition underway. DiMichele explains several enhancements are expected in the first quarter of 2025, including expanded mandatory fields and the integration of pre-populated external data sets. These updates are based on feedback from participating boards and new users of the platform.

Participating boards and associations

The following boards and associations are part of the PropTx MLS collaboration:

• Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (including the former Brampton Real Estate Board)
• Central Lakes Association of Realtors (including Durham, Quinte, Northumberland, Peterborough, and Kawartha Lakes)
• London and St. Thomas Association of Realtors
• Niagara Association of Realtors (NAR)
• Kingston & Area Real Estate Association (KAREA)
• Timmins, Cochrane & Timiskaming District Association of Realtors
• Ottawa Real Estate Board
• Cornwall & District Real Estate Board
• Renfrew County Real Estate Board
• Rideau-St Lawrence Real Estate Board
• Oakville, Milton & District Real Estate Board (OMDREB)
• One Point Association of Realtors (formerly Lakelands, Guelph & District, Huron Perth, and Grey Bruce Owen Sound)
• Woodstock, Ingersoll Tillsonburg & Area Association of Realtors (WITAAR)
• North Bay & Area Realtors Association (NBARA)

DiMichele explains that through PropTx, members of these associations have access to more data than ever before, and that will expand as new features are introduced.

“The move towards a single MLS database creates incredible efficiencies for Realtors, both in the operation of their business as well as in the cost of operating their business,” DiMichele says. “The move towards a single MLS database reduces the need for interboarding MLS listings as well as paying for multiple real estate board and association memberships.”

TRREB’s CEO calls PropTx a for-Realtors-by-Realtors solution, “The long-term strategic goal of PropTx is to continue to offer a range of best-in-class tools, insights, and applications to improve the transaction experience for realtors and the clients they serve efficiently and effectively.”

Impact on ITSO

More boards transitioning to PropTx marks a shift for the Information Technology Systems of Ontario (ITSO), a not-for-profit corporation established in 2020 with the primary goal of creating a unified MLS.

Geoff Halford, ITSO chair, says the organization was initially created to increase access to MLS data through the operation of a regional MLS System when associations were not ready to amalgamate but wanted to share data. Halford says this purpose may no longer be relevant.

Member boards such as KAREA, NAR, OMDREB, NBARA, WITAAR, and OnePoint are leaving or have left ITSO in favour of PropTx.

Halford acknowledges the evolving landscape and its potential impact. “We are proud of the success we had creating a regional system that at its peak brought together 23 real estate associations and more than 24,000 users who had access to data from 29 of the real estate associations in the province, but we also understand that the landscape is quickly changing,” he said, adding  ITSO remains committed to supporting its current member associations, ensuring that the system continues to meet their needs.

“We are disappointed that a solution could not be arranged with TRREB that would have fostered competition in the MLS services market…” Geoff Halford, ITSO chair

ITSO will operate its MLS system for its remaining three member boards, the Barrie & District Association of Realtors (BDAR), Brantford Regional Real Estate Association (BRREA), and Cornerstone Association of Realtors, for the next two years under the current MLS Services Agreement.

“We will be reviewing what is in the best interests of our members and the future of ITSO over the course of the next two years,” says Halford.”There are other MLS Systems in Ontario and in other provinces that operate with far fewer users than ITSO, so we know such a system is viable, but we also understand the political pressure that our remaining members face to solve the problem of fragmented data access.

“We are disappointed that a solution could not be arranged with TRREB that would have fostered competition in the MLS services market and enabled all realtors in the province to access all the MLS data they need in the system of their choice.” 

Halford adds, “It is especially disheartening to see Realtors who formerly used the ITSO system complain on social media about the quality and quantity of listing content they now have access to in their new MLS System, as ITSO and its members prided themselves on building a comprehensive database of detailed and accurate MLS listing content.”

Industry perspectives

Paul Czan, president of the Ottawa Real Estate Board, says the board joined PropTx last fall.

Czan explains, “This new platform promises a much better experience with more data readily available. Faster communication and smoother transactions, in a sense. Another thing is we’re able to have input on the system.”

OREB’s president has high hopes for PropTx’s impact.  “I think it’s going to be a platform that’s going to bring stability and consistency amongst a bit of a shifting landscape in our industry, meaning that Realtors can be assured that they can have access to the same quality data as their counterparts in all the other regions.”

Editor’s note: The original article stated that the Ottawa Real Estate Board had left ITSO for PropTx. The board was not an ITSO member and the article has been updated to reflect that.

It’s official—Realtor.ca is now a standalone, wholly-owned taxable subsidiary of the Canadian Real Estate Association. On Jan. 6, the entity was legally formed and governance now falls to its transition board of directors.  

As part of the change, Patrick Pichette, who has served as vice president of Realtor.ca for over six years, has been named interim CEO following the board’s first meeting earlier this week.

The restructuring is intended to provide Realtor.ca with greater operational flexibility, enabling the platform to pursue additional revenue opportunities and invest in further development, CREA says. 

“I’m honoured to continue to lead the exceptional Realtor.ca team and look forward to building on the incredible momentum of the past several years. REALTOR.ca is an indispensable resource and I believe deeply in the value the platform generates for the Canadian real estate ecosystem,” says Pichette.

The national association explains the transition to a taxable subsidiary comes in response to growing competition, evolving consumer expectations and increasing operational costs. CREA says it aims to reduce its reliance on member dues while maintaining Realtor ownership and reinvesting profits into the platform.

Ottawa saw 613 homes sell in December 2024, 7.9 per cent more than the previous year, the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reports. This was 6.8 per cent below the five-year average and 2.7 per cent below the 10-year average for December.

Year-to-date, sales totalled 13,526 units in December, which was 11.8 per cent more than the same period in 2023.

“A year of wait-and-see came to a close with the expected slowdown over the holiday season,” said OREB president Paul Czan in a press release.

“The latter half of the year brought signs of more favourable market conditions with consecutive interest rate drops, higher insured mortgage limits and extended amortizations. It’s early to assess the impact of these measures. And it’s an uphill battle against affordability and supply issues that persist.”

Optimism tempered with political change uncertainty

Czan explained that listing activity shows sellers expect improved conditions to bring more activity from buyers who have been watching the market but hesitate to make moves.

”While the improving market conditions are encouraging, the supply needs to be there. Coming political shifts are adding a layer of uncertainty but there is a trending optimism for more increased market activity in the months ahead.”

Source: OREB

Prices

The overall home price index composite benchmark price was $645,800 in December 2024, an increase of 3.8 per cent from December 2023.

This measure for a single-family home was $729,300, up 3.7 per cent year-over-year. Townhouse/row homes came in at $533,200, up 11.3 per cent from the year prior. Apartment homes were $404,400, 2.5 per cent less than in 2023.

Home sales in December 2024 totalled $406.9 million, up 12.7 per cent from December 2023. 

Inventory and new listings

December’s new listings rose by 13.6 per cent from the year before. The 603 new listings marked a 3.5 per cent increase from the five-year average and a 2.7 per cent drop from the 10-year average for December.

Active listings totalled 3,216 units at the end of December, 58.7 higher than December 2023, 90 per cent above the five-year average and 51.4 per cent above the 10-year average for the month.

Review the full report.

The London and St. Thomas Association of Realtors (LSTAR) board of directors recently announced that Dale Marsh will serve as its chair in 2025.

Marsh moved to London in 1994 and trained as a survey technician. He holds an Accredited Buyer’s Representative (ABR) designation and became a Realtor in 2006. Marsh served on the LSTAR board of directors in 2013, 2014 and 2018.

“2025 is an exciting time for our industry. There is lots of attention on the market and housing supply both locally and across the country,” Marsh said in a press release.

“It’s important that we as an industry continue to engage with all levels of government and community stakeholders to ensure that everyone has a safe and affordable place to call home.”

LSTAR’s 2025 board of directors

Marsh said he looks forward to working with LSTAR’s “fantastic board of directors” to better serve its members, advocate for improved housing attainability and build stronger communities.

Joining Marsh on the 2025 LSTAR board of directors are Past-Chair Kathy Amess, Chair-Elect Robin Tiller, Commercial Director Lisa Lansink and Directors Lindsay Reid, Neda Beaulac, Michelle Orsini, Andy Sheridan, Blair Campbell and Dan Grantham.

“I am honoured to lead LSTAR in 2025 and am committed to addressing the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. Together, we can make a significant impact on our community and the real estate industry,” Marsh added.

As we reflect on 2024’s market, I can’t help but draw parallels to another pivotal moment in Toronto’s real estate history: the dramatic correction of the early 1990s. Back then, Toronto experienced what many considered unthinkable: a six-year decline that saw average home prices plummet by 28 per cent from their 1989 peak. The catalyst? A perfect storm of rising interest rates, recession and overbuilding that burst what was then considered Toronto’s first major housing bubble. 

That correction fundamentally reshaped the market. Properties that had been snapped up for $500,000 in 1989 were selling for $350,000 by 1996. Developers went bankrupt, leaving half-finished condominiums dotting the skyline. The term “negative equity” entered the everyday vocabulary of Toronto homeowners, as thousands found themselves underwater on their mortgages.

But if you look back on that period, the market appeared almost “flat” from about 1991 to 1996 after the steep drop. A similar trend can be observed in the chart above, which shows house prices since interest rate hikes started in 2022.

Where we’re at now

Today’s market might echo some aspects of that tumultuous period, with falling prices brought on by once-rising interest rates, perpetual affordability concerns, an election, changes to capital gains structure and more economic uncertainty, especially around unemployment.

So, it may come as a surprise to you that the market was warming up a bit in November (more sales, NOT higher prices). The reason we’re seeing more people buying houses in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is affordability.

Affordability is improving in Canadian real estate, and the GTA is at the forefront. In fact, housing affordability in Toronto has corrected more than any other major city in Canada according to the National Bank’s Q3 Housing Affordability Monitor.

A correction means that mortgage payment costs are decreasing as a percentage of household income. When people can afford to buy houses, they do. This phenomenon gave 2024 a relatively strong market in October and November, but December was slowed. 

The biggest support for the improvement in affordability could also be its greatest risk factor. RBC observed that growing household income significantly helped improve affordability in 2024’s third quarter. The challenge is the few key trends that could slow wage growth in 2025:

1. The unemployment rate is rising
2. The majority of job growth has come from government hiring
3. The likely winner of our election is committed to reducing the number of government employees

So, future improvements to housing affordability may come from a reduction in interest rates or house prices. In a healthy market, Toronto’s housing costs 40-50 per cent of median household income, and I expect it will get back there in time.

GTA 2024: A buyer’s market with caveats

For years, the GTA housing market felt like a relentless bidding ground, with escalating prices and scarce supply fueling a sense of urgency. However, 2024’s home sales reached 67,610—up 2.6 per cent from 65,877 in 2023—while new listings surged by 16.4 per cent to 166,121. On paper, this provided buyers with a clear advantage and more choice than they’d seen in years, hinting at a possible market correction.

Yet beneath the surface, the so-called “buyer’s market” has been far from a bargain. Despite the uptick in listings, the average selling price dipped by less than 1.0 per cent year-over-year, settling at $1,117,600 compared to $1,126,263 in 2023. Detached homes continued to command lofty prices, while condominiums —though subject to more notable price declines—still struggled to attract cost-conscious first-time buyers, many of whom stayed on the sidelines in hopes of greater interest rate relief down the road.

Monthly, there were some significant data points. Sales decreased by 1.8 per cent, while new listings and active listings substantially increased by 20.2 and 48.5 per cent, respectively. The average price saw a slight decrease of 1.6 per cent compared to December 2023, and days on market increased by 12-15 per cent.

The 16.4 per cent jump in new listings might suggest an easing of supply constraints, yet many sellers appeared hesitant to lower asking prices. Although the balanced supply-to-demand ratio theoretically favoured buyers, the minimal price drop signals seller resistance to resetting expectations. The gap between buyer hopes and market realities remained stubbornly wide.

Condominiums: A sector to watch in 2025

Of all the sectors in the GTA real estate market, the condominium sector is the one I’m really keeping my eye on. With more new condominium listings than ever before and record new supply added to the market in 2024, it shows no signs of letting up.

There are a few reasons for this. First, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes made it more expensive for people to buy homes, causing some first-time buyers and investors to choose condominiums as a more affordable option. Second, the construction of new condominiums has been booming, which has added to supply on the market.

Despite the supply increase, condominium prices have not yet fallen as much as expected, probably not because demand remains strong but more because sellers have decided to lose money slowly rather than quickly. What I mean by this is the majority of new condominiums have been considered “cash flow negative” in the current market by Benjamin Tal and Urbanation. Based on my analysis, the majority are also “equity negative.” 

Source: Valery.ca Special Report

So, many sellers have set a floor price—that is, a minimum price they’d accept. If they don’t get that price, they decide to rent the unit out rather than sell it at a loss, allowing them to spread out the burden across monthly mortgage payments rather than absorbing it in one shot. 

Source: Robert Marsiglio, Realtor 

2025 predictions: Hope or more of the same?

Looking ahead, optimism for 2025 hinges on continued interest rate cuts and stable or marginally lower home prices. TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule expects improved market conditions over the next year, but the GTA market has a remarkable knack for bouncing back swiftly. Prospective buyers banking on continued softness may find themselves outpaced if the market rebounds.

Meanwhile, structural problems remain—congestion, supply constraints and stubbornly high prices. TRREB’s chief market analyst, Jason Mercer, emphasized that government policy reforms must address these core issues. Otherwise, the GTA’s real estate rollercoaster will continue with fleeting windows of affordability that close as quickly as they appear.

Far from a buyer’s utopia, 2024 felt more like an intermission. Yes, deals were occasionally on the table, but “affordable” remained a moving target—especially for those entering the market for the first time. The question persists: as we edge into 2025, will this pause evolve into genuine relief, or is it merely the calm before the next wave of price hikes? Only time—and possibly more interest rate adjustments—will tell.

2024 was a tough year in real estate, thanks to the higher interest rate environment and economic uncertainty, the Cornerstone Association of Realtors (CAR) reports, with 2024 sales totalling 10,210 transactions. This was similar to 2023’s levels but 26 per cent below long-term trends.

‘Many potential purchasers are starting to feel more confident’

The region experienced slower sales throughout the spring season that almost offset improvements that occurred later in the year when interest rates eased.

Source: CAR

“As interest rates have begun to trend downward, some homebuyers are taking advantage of the opportunity to enter the market while there is still a good selection of homes available,” said Nicolas von Bredow, Cornerstone spokesperson for the Hamilton-Burlington market area, in a press release.

“Although the pace of return has been gradual, the improving rates have sparked renewed interest, and many potential purchasers are starting to feel more confident in making their move.”

Supply and prices

However, von Bredow notes the association continued to see more new listings and inventory gains, with over 3,000 units available throughout the majority of the year. Supply improved across all property types and most price ranges, including lower-priced products.    

More supply choice has been a trend since 2023 and has impacted home prices. However, CAR points out that the declines over the past few years have been relative to the pandemic high: even with a nearly 1.0 per cent decline in 2024, annually, the average benchmark price is consistent with 2021 levels and 9.0 per cent higher than the 2020 average annual benchmark price of $651,425.

Review the full report here.

Metro Vancouver home sales climbed over 30 per cent in December from the previous year, Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) reports.

“Looking back on 2024, it could best be described as a pivot year for the market after experiencing such dramatic increases in mortgage rates in the preceding years,” said Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics, in a press release.

“With borrowing costs now firmly on the decline, buyers have started to show up in numbers after somewhat of a hiatus—and this renewed strength is now clearly visible in the more recent monthly data.” 

2024 summary: Sales, inventory and prices

The region’s residential sales totalled 26,561 for the year. This was 20.9 per cent below the 10-year annual sales average, 1.2 per cent above the 26,249 sales in 2023 and 9.2 per cent below the 29,261 sales in 2022.

There were 60,388 properties listed on MLS in Metro Vancouver last year. This was 5.7 per cent above the region’s 10-year annual average, 18.7 per cent above the 50,894 properties listed in 2023 and 9.7 per cent above the 55,047 properties listed in 2022.

There are currently 10,948 properties listed for sale in Metro Vancouver, 24.4 per cent above December 2024 and 25.3 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average. 

The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,171,500, 0.5 per cent more than December 2023 and 0.1 per cent less than November 2024. 

Total sales short of target but 2025 well-positioned

“Disappointingly, sales came in shy of our forecasted target for the year, but the December figures signal an emerging pattern of strength in home sales, building on the momentum seen in previous months,” Lis said.

“These more recent sales figures are now trending back towards long-term historical averages, which suggests there may still be quite a bit of potential upside for sales as we head into 2025, should the recent strength continue.”

Lis explained that although sales activity had a slower start to the year, price trends were rising at the start of last year and closed the year on a flatter trajectory. While most market segments saw year-over-year increases of a few per cent, he said it appears the 2025 market is positioned to be “considerably more active than we’ve seen in recent years.”

December summary

Last month, the region’s residential sales totalled 1,765, a 31.2 per cent increase from December 2023 and 14.9 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average. 

There were 1,676 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale in Metro Vancouver, 26.3 per cent more than in December 2023 and 1.1 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for December 2024 was 16.8 per cent (12.1 per cent for detached homes, 23.6 per cent for attached homes and 18.7 per cent for apartment homes).

By property type

Detached home sales in December 2024 reached 494, 31.4 per cent more than in December 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home was $1,997,000, a 2.0 per cent increase from December 2023 and nearly unchanged from November 2024. 

Apartment home sales in December 2024 reached 891, 23.9 per cent more than in December 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home was $749,900, a 0.1 per cent decrease from December 2023 and 0.4 per cent less than November 2024. 

Attached home sales in December 2024 totalled 371, 55.9 per cent more than in December 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse was $1,114,600, a 3.4 per cent increase from December 2023 and 0.3 per cent less than November 2024. 

Review the full report here.