housing market Archives - REM https://realestatemagazine.ca/tag/housing-market/ Canada’s premier magazine for real estate professionals. Mon, 27 Jan 2025 17:47:43 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1 https://realestatemagazine.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/cropped-REM-Fav-32x32.png housing market Archives - REM https://realestatemagazine.ca/tag/housing-market/ 32 32 Calgary market to see sales 20% above long-term trends in 2025: CREB forecast https://realestatemagazine.ca/calgary-market-to-see-sales-20-above-long-term-trends-in-2025-creb-forecast/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/calgary-market-to-see-sales-20-above-long-term-trends-in-2025-creb-forecast/#comments Mon, 27 Jan 2025 10:01:04 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=36933 While Calgary’s population growth and easing lending rates are expected to fuel demand, an influx of new supply will bring balance and temper price growth

The post Calgary market to see sales 20% above long-term trends in 2025: CREB forecast appeared first on REM.

]]>
Calgary’s housing market will likely maintain its momentum through 2025, with sales expected 20 per ent above long-term trends, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board’s (CREB) annual forecast. While population growth and easing lending rates are expected to fuel demand, an influx of new supply will bring balance and temper price growth.

“While the market is expected to be more balanced than in recent years, significant economic risks—such as potential tariffs—could impact activity,” says CREB’s Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie These risks will be crucial to watch as we navigate through 2025.”

 

Sales stable

 

Similar to 2024, CREB projects over 26,000 homes will be sold this year, with sales in the detached market forecasted to reach 12,600 units.

Similar to other large markets, the condo market faces headwinds. Rising rental vacancies, fueled by an influx of new rental completions, are expected to temper demand for apartments, resulting in a projected 3.5 per cent decline in sales, and a 1.8 per cent drop increase in price.

 

Balancing supply and prices

 

A leading trend for 2025 will be the impact of Calgary’s record-breaking construction activity. By the end of 2024, over 22,500 new homes had been built—half of them apartments. This increased supply has already begun to ease pressures on both sale prices and rent.

Looking ahead, CREB expects the new housing to help stabilize the market. Citywide price growth is forecasted to slow to 3 per cent, down from 2024’s 7 per cent gain. But CREB says to expect varied price trends. 

Lower-priced homes are expected to see steeper increases due to demand and limited supply, while higher-priced homes may face softer growth amid increased competition from newly built units.

Economic and population trends


Alberta’s economy continues to support Calgary’s housing market. Investments in alternative energy, carbon capture, food manufacturing and artificial intelligence are projected to sustain economic growth, even as concerns about potential U.S. tariffs temper optimism. Alberta is forecasted to lead Canada in growth in 2025, with Calgary’s population expected to grow at a rate faster than the provincial average.

Migration levels—both interprovincial and international—will likely ease in 2025 compared to record highs in previous years. Despite this slowdown, population gains are likely to remain a key driver of housing demand.

CREB highlights economic risks such as potential U.S. tariffs and shifting federal energy policies, which could dampen consumer confidence and investment. On the upside, a tariff-free scenario could strengthen Alberta’s economy, leading to higher migration and housing activity than currently forecasted.

Easing lending rates offer more upside potential. Lower borrowing costs could bring more first-time buyers and support higher-than-expected sales, particularly in the detached and semi-detached markets.

The post Calgary market to see sales 20% above long-term trends in 2025: CREB forecast appeared first on REM.

]]>
https://realestatemagazine.ca/calgary-market-to-see-sales-20-above-long-term-trends-in-2025-creb-forecast/feed/ 2
Greater Vancouver market stumbles in 2024—forecasts vs. reality https://realestatemagazine.ca/greater-vancouver-market-stumbles-in-2024-forecasts-vs-reality/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/greater-vancouver-market-stumbles-in-2024-forecasts-vs-reality/#comments Thu, 23 Jan 2025 10:01:29 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=36896 How did the Metro Vancouver housing market perform in 2024 compared to GVR’s forecasts, and what are the expectations for 2025?

The post Greater Vancouver market stumbles in 2024—forecasts vs. reality appeared first on REM.

]]>

Metro Vancouver’s residential market in 2024 proved to be a mixed bag, falling short of optimistic forecasts set earlier in the year by Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR). While some gains were seen, they didn’t reach expectations, leaving some market watchers reassessing their expectations for 2025.

 

Missed sales targets

 

GVR released its H1 forecast for 2025, including a look at how 2024’s market compared to its forecast. At the start of last year, optimism was high. GVR predicted an 8 per cent increase in sales compared to 2023, with projections reaching 28,250 transactions by year-end. Ultimately the market closed the year with 26,561 sales, a 2 per cent rise over the previous year. The momentum, initially driven by reduced borrowing costs, faltered in the summer, curtailing overall performance.

 

Price gains under pressure

 

Similarly, price growth failed to reach expectations. The average residential price was forecasted to rise by 3 per cent in 2024, reaching  $1,320,000. Instead, the actual increase was half that—1.5 per cent, with the year-end average price settling at $1.3-million. Early gains in the year were eroded by growing inventory levels and weaker-than-expected sales.

“Despite numerous cuts to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate and subsequent reductions to borrowing costs throughout 2024, supply continued to outpace demand by year-end, eroding, but not fully erasing, the price gains which began the year,” the report notes.

 

Looking ahead to 2025

 

With 2024’s shortfalls as a backdrop, GVR’s forecast for 2025 maintains cautious optimism. Key drivers such as population growth, household formation and lower borrowing costs are expected to support the market. Political and economic uncertainties—including potential U.S. trade policies pose a risk to the housing market

 

Risks and wildcards

 

GVR’s modeling suggests that based on “preliminary analysis” proposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, if implemented, could create a drag on sales activity. The impact is expected to be short-lived, and “any negative impacts to home prices are likely to be modest and would most likely arise through the (potential) reduction in sales activity, rather than through any direct impacts arising from the tariffs themselves.”

Canada’s inevitable federal election could also derail GVR’s outlook for the region. “Political turmoil at the Canadian federal level along with the potential for a new Conservative government could yield policies negatively impacting the housing market, though new policies could also positively impact the market as well.”

 

Outlook for 2025

 

GVR economists see improved momentum heading into 2025 compared to last year, with lower borrowing costs anticipated to support demand.

“Our price forecasts for 2025 are again similar to those we expected in 2024, however the market now has the benefit of significantly lower borrowing costs to start the year than were available in 2024, which we believe should provide the necessary stimulus to reach our 2025 price forecasts.”

Residential sales are expected to reach 30,250—a 13.9 per cent increase over 2024, while the average home price is projected to grow 4.1 per cent—reaching $1,354,000. 

As with most forecast’s, GVR’s outlook for the year comes with a key caveat: a stronger-than-expected economic recovery could accelerate sales and price growth, while heightened inventory levels or recessionary pressures could dampen performance.

The post Greater Vancouver market stumbles in 2024—forecasts vs. reality appeared first on REM.

]]>
https://realestatemagazine.ca/greater-vancouver-market-stumbles-in-2024-forecasts-vs-reality/feed/ 1
Foch: 2024’s GTA real estate—a buyer’s market with a catch https://realestatemagazine.ca/foch-2024s-gta-real-estate-a-buyers-market-with-a-catch/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/foch-2024s-gta-real-estate-a-buyers-market-with-a-catch/#comments Fri, 10 Jan 2025 17:35:17 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=36630 Daniel FochDaniel Foch is the Chief Real Estate Officer at Valery.ca, and Host of Canada’s #1 real estate podcast. As co-founder of The Habistat, the onboard data science platform for […]

The post Foch: 2024’s GTA real estate—a buyer’s market with a catch appeared first on REM.

]]>

As we reflect on 2024’s market, I can’t help but draw parallels to another pivotal moment in Toronto’s real estate history: the dramatic correction of the early 1990s. Back then, Toronto experienced what many considered unthinkable: a six-year decline that saw average home prices plummet by 28 per cent from their 1989 peak. The catalyst? A perfect storm of rising interest rates, recession and overbuilding that burst what was then considered Toronto’s first major housing bubble. 

That correction fundamentally reshaped the market. Properties that had been snapped up for $500,000 in 1989 were selling for $350,000 by 1996. Developers went bankrupt, leaving half-finished condominiums dotting the skyline. The term “negative equity” entered the everyday vocabulary of Toronto homeowners, as thousands found themselves underwater on their mortgages.

But if you look back on that period, the market appeared almost “flat” from about 1991 to 1996 after the steep drop. A similar trend can be observed in the chart above, which shows house prices since interest rate hikes started in 2022.

 

 

Where we’re at now

 

Today’s market might echo some aspects of that tumultuous period, with falling prices brought on by once-rising interest rates, perpetual affordability concerns, an election, changes to capital gains structure and more economic uncertainty, especially around unemployment.

So, it may come as a surprise to you that the market was warming up a bit in November (more sales, NOT higher prices). The reason we’re seeing more people buying houses in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is affordability.

 

Affordability is improving in Canadian real estate, and the GTA is at the forefront. In fact, housing affordability in Toronto has corrected more than any other major city in Canada according to the National Bank’s Q3 Housing Affordability Monitor.

A correction means that mortgage payment costs are decreasing as a percentage of household income. When people can afford to buy houses, they do. This phenomenon gave 2024 a relatively strong market in October and November, but December was slowed. 

The biggest support for the improvement in affordability could also be its greatest risk factor. RBC observed that growing household income significantly helped improve affordability in 2024’s third quarter. The challenge is the few key trends that could slow wage growth in 2025:

  1. The unemployment rate is rising
  2. The majority of job growth has come from government hiring
  3. The likely winner of our election is committed to reducing the number of government employees

So, future improvements to housing affordability may come from a reduction in interest rates or house prices. In a healthy market, Toronto’s housing costs 40-50 per cent of median household income, and I expect it will get back there in time.

 

GTA 2024: A buyer’s market with caveats

 

For years, the GTA housing market felt like a relentless bidding ground, with escalating prices and scarce supply fueling a sense of urgency. However, 2024’s home sales reached 67,610—up 2.6 per cent from 65,877 in 2023—while new listings surged by 16.4 per cent to 166,121. On paper, this provided buyers with a clear advantage and more choice than they’d seen in years, hinting at a possible market correction.

Yet beneath the surface, the so-called “buyer’s market” has been far from a bargain. Despite the uptick in listings, the average selling price dipped by less than 1.0 per cent year-over-year, settling at $1,117,600 compared to $1,126,263 in 2023. Detached homes continued to command lofty prices, while condominiums —though subject to more notable price declines—still struggled to attract cost-conscious first-time buyers, many of whom stayed on the sidelines in hopes of greater interest rate relief down the road.

Monthly, there were some significant data points. Sales decreased by 1.8 per cent, while new listings and active listings substantially increased by 20.2 and 48.5 per cent, respectively. The average price saw a slight decrease of 1.6 per cent compared to December 2023, and days on market increased by 12-15 per cent.

The 16.4 per cent jump in new listings might suggest an easing of supply constraints, yet many sellers appeared hesitant to lower asking prices. Although the balanced supply-to-demand ratio theoretically favoured buyers, the minimal price drop signals seller resistance to resetting expectations. The gap between buyer hopes and market realities remained stubbornly wide.

 

Condominiums: A sector to watch in 2025

 

Of all the sectors in the GTA real estate market, the condominium sector is the one I’m really keeping my eye on. With more new condominium listings than ever before and record new supply added to the market in 2024, it shows no signs of letting up.

There are a few reasons for this. First, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes made it more expensive for people to buy homes, causing some first-time buyers and investors to choose condominiums as a more affordable option. Second, the construction of new condominiums has been booming, which has added to supply on the market.

Despite the supply increase, condominium prices have not yet fallen as much as expected, probably not because demand remains strong but more because sellers have decided to lose money slowly rather than quickly. What I mean by this is the majority of new condominiums have been considered “cash flow negative” in the current market by Benjamin Tal and Urbanation. Based on my analysis, the majority are also “equity negative.” 

Source: Valery.ca Special Report

 

So, many sellers have set a floor price—that is, a minimum price they’d accept. If they don’t get that price, they decide to rent the unit out rather than sell it at a loss, allowing them to spread out the burden across monthly mortgage payments rather than absorbing it in one shot. 

Source: Robert Marsiglio, Realtor 

 

2025 predictions: Hope or more of the same?

 

Looking ahead, optimism for 2025 hinges on continued interest rate cuts and stable or marginally lower home prices. TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule expects improved market conditions over the next year, but the GTA market has a remarkable knack for bouncing back swiftly. Prospective buyers banking on continued softness may find themselves outpaced if the market rebounds.

Meanwhile, structural problems remain—congestion, supply constraints and stubbornly high prices. TRREB’s chief market analyst, Jason Mercer, emphasized that government policy reforms must address these core issues. Otherwise, the GTA’s real estate rollercoaster will continue with fleeting windows of affordability that close as quickly as they appear.

Far from a buyer’s utopia, 2024 felt more like an intermission. Yes, deals were occasionally on the table, but “affordable” remained a moving target—especially for those entering the market for the first time. The question persists: as we edge into 2025, will this pause evolve into genuine relief, or is it merely the calm before the next wave of price hikes? Only time—and possibly more interest rate adjustments—will tell.

 

The post Foch: 2024’s GTA real estate—a buyer’s market with a catch appeared first on REM.

]]>
https://realestatemagazine.ca/foch-2024s-gta-real-estate-a-buyers-market-with-a-catch/feed/ 1
OPINION: Trump’d up tariff fears and what this means for Canadian real estate https://realestatemagazine.ca/opinion-trumpd-up-tariff-fears-and-what-this-means-for-canadian-real-estate/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/opinion-trumpd-up-tariff-fears-and-what-this-means-for-canadian-real-estate/#comments Wed, 08 Jan 2025 10:05:11 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=36483 There’s what statistics and data show, and then there’s podium bluster. Hopefully, time, patience and diplomacy can preserve the successful NAFTA alliance

The post OPINION: Trump’d up tariff fears and what this means for Canadian real estate appeared first on REM.

]]>

In British Columbia, we wrapped up October with one of the oddest provincial elections in recent memory, only to immediately turn our gaze cross-border to an even stranger spectacle.

Here in the land of socialized medicine and progressive poutineries, the rhetoric of United States President-elect Donald Trump can often seem like nationalist propaganda, a badly written sitcom or just straight-up unhinged boasting. But love him or hate him, Trump is soon to be the 47th president of the U.S.

 

Blanket tariff impacts & a tough housing landscape

 

The national media narrative since the U.S. election has been dominated by Trumpian threats of a blanket 25 per cent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico. This spells immediate trouble for B.C. forestry products, Ontario-made cars and longstanding commodities of concern such as aluminum and supply-managed dairy. But those products are in for a rough ride regardless, with renewed negotiations on the horizon for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) or, as it’s referred to on this side of the border, the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

On the housing front, we share supply shortages, upwardly creeping home prices and overall challenging market conditions with much of the continental U.S. Meanwhile, aggressive housing policies paired with economic uncertainty have stalled the number of new builds in both regions, which does little to relieve market conditions.

 

Canadian challenges: Already great without tariff threats

 

There are, however, significant differences in our respective national per-capita GDP stats and household incomes. Canada has fallen significantly behind the U.S. on both fronts over the past decade.

Not only are we producing less on a per-person basis, but we’re also now earning less than U.S. averages. In the notably expensive housing market of San Francisco, for example, the median salary is $104,400 USD—significantly higher than the Vancouver and Toronto averages of $64,250 CAD and $62,050 CAD, respectively.

These realities combine to make life particularly challenging in Canada’s largest metropolitan regions as the regional populations grapple with the super-high cost of living expenses in addition to housing. 

In short, our domestic housing landscape is already messy, and that’s without any Trump-imposed tariff threats. Alberta has wasted no time in loudly pushing against federal energy caps that don’t align with the Trumpian “open for business” energy-sector agenda. Our beleaguered Prime Minister’s late-November Mar-a-Lago dinner meeting with Trump has resulted in our federal government scrambling to further secure our borders, even as anti-Liberals across the country raise their hands in support of becoming a 51st state. 

 

Further fallout to our GDP likely to come

 

With Canada already navigating a growth-challenged landscape, the already uncertain economic recovery in 2025 is further challenged by Trump’s trade tactics. As trade negotiations related to NAFTA/CUSMA get underway, the U.S. tactics of intimidation, and outright demands for Canada and Mexico to assume a subservient position within the structured agreement, are likely to cause further fallout to our national GDP.

Amid this uncertainty, our dollar is slumping against U.S. currency (as are most other Western currencies), and the Bank of Canada continues to implement rate cuts in an effort to spur economic growth. 

 

Trade war will hurt the housing market and building conditions

 

The larger challenge amid Trump-led tariff sabre-rattling and a potential global trade war will be the cost of building supplies and imports. It’s important to note that Canada is the largest trading partner of the U.S., and a trade war, aside from political puffery and bluster, is beneficial to neither economy. But should reciprocal tariffs be put into place for any prolonged timeline, the cost of goods on both sides of the border would escalate.

This would further challenge homebuilder profitability, and these costs would inevitably be passed on to the buyer, which makes for a complicated end result of softening market conditions paired with challenged building conditions. Ultimately, this is likely to further stagnate new builds. 

 

Optimistically, Canada could negotiate past the threats of the Trump administration. NAFTA was conceived as a three-way trade union to be of reciprocal benefit to the participant countries. Trump, however, is fond of positioning Mexico and Canada as taking unfair advantage of the U.S. economy.

This will be a tricky hill to climb for federal negotiators. There’s what the statistics and data demonstrate, and then there’s podium bluster. Hopefully, time, patience and diplomacy can once more find a workable solution to preserve the successful NAFTA alliance. 

 

Please note that it’s BCREA policy to not respond to comments on any of its online articles.

 

The post OPINION: Trump’d up tariff fears and what this means for Canadian real estate appeared first on REM.

]]>
https://realestatemagazine.ca/opinion-trumpd-up-tariff-fears-and-what-this-means-for-canadian-real-estate/feed/ 4
Seniors lead Canada’s solo renter revolution, larger dwellings preferred https://realestatemagazine.ca/seniors-lead-canadas-solo-renter-revolution-larger-dwellings-preferred/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/seniors-lead-canadas-solo-renter-revolution-larger-dwellings-preferred/#respond Mon, 06 Jan 2025 10:03:18 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=36396 With independence, flexibility and downsizing at the forefront, more Canadians aged 65+ are redefining what it means to live alone

The post Seniors lead Canada’s solo renter revolution, larger dwellings preferred appeared first on REM.

]]>

Solo renting is becoming a defining trend in Canada’s housing market, with seniors aged 65 and older emerging as the largest demographic driving this shift, a Point2Homes study shows.

With 4.4 million Canadians living alone in 2021—over 2.6 million of which are in Ontario and Quebec—one-person households have doubled since 1991, and solo renters now comprise over 50 per cent of this group, surpassing solo homeowners.

This surge reflects broader societal changes. Rising housing costs have made homeownership unattainable for many, particularly in urban centers like Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. 

Renting offers a more accessible option, allowing individuals to maintain independence without the long-term financial burden of owning a property. Additionally, evolving societal priorities—such as a focus on personal freedom, delayed family formation and the increasing preference for hassle-free living—have contributed to this trend.

 

A third of Canada’s solo renters are seniors

 

Older renters are particularly drawn to downsizing, flexibility, reduced responsibilities and the adaptability of renting as they navigate life changes like widowhood or divorce. Seniors now make up one-third of Canada’s solo renters, with their share growing faster than any other age group between 2016 and 2021.

In cities like Ontario’s Halton Hills and Caledon, over half of solo renters are seniors, reflecting a broader shift in demographics. 

 

More younger renters in urban hubs

 

Meanwhile, younger solo renters gravitate toward urban hubs like Toronto and Montreal for education, career opportunities and cultural attractions.

Despite their numbers, younger generations are struggling to afford solo living, with high housing costs and postponed life milestones influencing their choices.

 

Single-family home rentals gaining popularity

 

Additionally, the type of housing solo renters prefer is evolving. While apartments remain popular, more renters are opting for single-family homes and two-bedroom units, signalling a desire for flexibility and extra space to accommodate varied lifestyle needs, whether for a home office, a guest room or more comfortable living conditions.

Single house renters surpassed 25 per cent of renters in 16 Canadian cities.

 

With the rise of senior solo renters, there’s a growing focus on creating housing that prioritizes accessibility, comfort and community integration. By addressing social isolation, financial challenges and the need for adaptable spaces, Canada’s housing market can better serve its aging population and redefine independent living for future generations.  

 

Review the full report here.

 

The post Seniors lead Canada’s solo renter revolution, larger dwellings preferred appeared first on REM.

]]>
https://realestatemagazine.ca/seniors-lead-canadas-solo-renter-revolution-larger-dwellings-preferred/feed/ 0
Canadian home sales rise 12% quarter-over-quarter in Q4: TD Economics https://realestatemagazine.ca/canadian-home-sales-rise-12-quarter-over-quarter-in-q4-td-economics/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/canadian-home-sales-rise-12-quarter-over-quarter-in-q4-td-economics/#comments Mon, 30 Dec 2024 10:08:21 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=36356 TD Economics estimates Canadian home sales have risen approximately 12% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, with the strongest gains coming from B.C. and Ontario

The post Canadian home sales rise 12% quarter-over-quarter in Q4: TD Economics appeared first on REM.

]]>
The Canadian housing market is wrapping up 2024 with unexpected momentum. A significant upswing in home sales growth during the fourth quarter has shifted expectations, pointing to a more optimistic trajectory for 2025,  according to the latest report from TD Economist Rishi Sondhi.

 

A Q4 surge

 

TD Economics estimates Canadian home sales have risen approximately 12 per cent quarter-over-quarter in Q4 of 2024, with the strongest gains coming from British Columbia and Ontario—“a major change relative to our September projection,” Sondhi writes. “Given the upgrade to the starting point, we now see sales reaching (and surpassing) their pre-pandemic level in 2024Q4.” TD Economics initially projected this would happen in the first quarter of 2025.

 

What’s driving growth?

Several factors are driving the Q4 breakout: 

  1. Falling borrowing costs: Easing interest rates are bolstering buyer activity.
  2. Economic growth: Sustained economic expansion provides a favourable backdrop for housing demand.
  3. Mortgage rule changes: New regulations implemented in December are anticipated to drive both demand and prices.

 

Regional trends

 

While nationwide trends indicate a “sunnier” outlook, regional nuances are shaping the forecast:

British Columbia and Ontario

These provinces are set to lead in sales growth in 2025, fueled by pent-up demand. However, affordability challenges in both regions may temper price increases. In Ontario, for instance, the Toronto area’s condo market faces oversupply issues, likely resulting in continued price declines next year. That said, Sondhi notes, “This condo market weakness should make it easier for more expensive types of housing, like detached units, to outperform, delivering some offsetting upside for average prices.”

The Prairies

Alberta and its Prairie neighbours are expected to remain relatively stable due to their better affordability and slower population growth deceleration compared to other regions. “Our forecast for Alberta’s home price growth suggests that by the end of 2026, average home prices will have expanded for 7 straight years in the province.”

Quebec

Quebec’s housing market is projected to experience solid price gains in 2025, buoyed by tight market conditions and supportive federal policies.

Atlantic Canada

While prices in the Atlantic provinces are likely to rise in the short term, a marked slowdown in interprovincial migration is reducing ownership demand. Consequently, the region may face significantly slower price growth in 2026.

 

Risks to the Outlook

 

Despite the positive trajectory, Sondhi notes risks remain. Tariff threats pose a significant challenge. “Full or partial implementation will damage the economy and, therefore, housing more than we’ve built into our baseline. On the upside, falling borrowing costs could upwardly pressure sales and prices by more than we expect.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Read the full report from TD Economics.

The post Canadian home sales rise 12% quarter-over-quarter in Q4: TD Economics appeared first on REM.

]]>
https://realestatemagazine.ca/canadian-home-sales-rise-12-quarter-over-quarter-in-q4-td-economics/feed/ 1
Housing markets across Canada are defying December norms https://realestatemagazine.ca/housing-markets-across-canada-are-defying-december-norms/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/housing-markets-across-canada-are-defying-december-norms/#respond Mon, 23 Dec 2024 10:08:15 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=36279 Many Realtors are reporting an unseasonal surge in markets across the country, likely fuelled by mortgage reforms and easing interest rates

The post Housing markets across Canada are defying December norms appeared first on REM.

]]>

It’s been an unusually busy fall for much of Canada’s housing market and some regions are experiencing extraordinary activity into December, sparking optimism for 2025. 

What’s buoying that sense of optimism is a number of policy decisions on the federal level that many say will continue to boost the market in 2025. 

Those include the continued easing of interest rates by the Bank of Canada and measures by the federal government in “delivering the boldest mortgage reforms in decades” to make it easier for people to buy homes.

Just how solid and healthy is the market?

 

November by the numbers 

 

Recent data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association showed that overall MLS sales in Canada of 37,855 in November were up 26 per cent from a year ago, led by whopping annual increases of 47 per cent in Montreal, 38.6 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area and 28.6 per cent in the Greater Vancouver Area.

Marc Lefrancois, broker/co-owner with Equipe Lefrancois in Montreal, said the market is bouncing back after a tumultuous 18 months. After the pandemic, sales volume dropped drastically. Recovery began last January. But September and October began to see the recovery in full swing.

“Instead of having a very typical quiet November and December, we’re actually really busy right now,” he said. “Obviously Montreal having a lower price point than Toronto or Vancouver creates a bigger mass of people that are going back to buying homes or creating their property.

“Right now, we’re busy as crazy. I’m a little scared and worried because I think my holiday season is going to be crap. But we’re really busy right now.”

 

Supply vs. demand

 

Lefrancois explained that, yes, there are many buyers coming to the market but there are also sellers, adding he’s done a record number of home valuations for December.  People are buying now because they believe prices are going to go up and they will have to pay more next year. Sellers are coming onto the market not to miss out on the demand. 

And while there are sellers, there aren’t enough.  “Prices are starting to go up again. The problem is that supply isn’t there,” he added.

 

Busiest December in a decade…for some

 

“The only year I can compare (November and December this year) is 2011. For a while, U.S. banks were in jeopardy and everybody was stressed out about the U.S. banking system (would) collapse. In Montreal, volumes went down to zero because people were worried about what was going to happen. When they realized the banks weren’t going to collapse, we got really busy. I remember that holiday period I was at the office every single day except for the 25th and the 1st. It looks and feels like that right now. The month of December has been the busiest probably in at least the last 10 years for sure.”

He said he usually lists three to four homes at the beginning of January, but this year he’s looking at 10 or 12.

Tim Hill, with Re/Max All Points Realty based in New Westminster. B.C., said the last four weeks have been busier than normal for this time of year, adding last year’s Fall market was rough.

“In the trenches here this year, I’m surprisingly busy right now. Typically middle of December we’re really quiet. Usually the beginning of December it slows down but the last four weeks have been super busy. People have been making offers, and getting deals done. The ones that are doing it are doing it in anticipation of further rate cuts next year and thinking to themselves that if they can get ahead of that curve and get in or get moved before there’s any potential of madness it will just be a calmer move and if the numbers make sense why not do it now, why wait basically,”  he explained.

He said there’s a pause right now in sellers listing their homes as they’re gearing up to go to the market at the beginning of January.

But it’s not the same in other cities. Randy Ryalls, Royal LePage Sterling Realty in Port Moody, B.C., said December hasn’t been a continuation of November in his market.

“But that’s not unusual. Things tend to slow down in December. People tend to turn their attention to Christmas. Our October was our best month and then November continued on that trend but to a lesser degree. Our October was up about 32 per cent over October 2023. November dropped off a little bit as is kind of usual this time year. December is certainly quieter in our experience,” he said, adding sales are probably just under the 10-year average.

 

“For the first time in a long time, at least in Greater Vancouver, we actually have probably a sufficient amount of inventory to not really get into a serious bottleneck.” – Randy Ryalls

 

Though Ryalls believes 2025 is going to be very busy as things are lining up that way with new lending rules to expand the market which is important to an expensive market like Vancouver. 

“For the first time in a long time, at least in Greater Vancouver, we actually have probably a sufficient amount of inventory to not really get into a serious bottleneck,” said Ryalls, adding there’s probably about two years of pent-up demand in the market.

Cameron Forbes, with Re/max Realtron Realty in the GTA, said sales so far this month are higher than a year ago. 

“It will be a month where unit sales are up just like October and November. I’m not sure it will be 40 per cent but 20, 30 per cent for sure. So the market is more active than December 2023. December is normally a slower month…but because we’ve had rate decreases it certainly has helped more buyers ask the question is now the time to buy, should I be back in the market, what can I afford,” he said.

Forbes expects increases in monthly sales into the New Year.

 

Positive outlook for 2025

 

Brayden Irwin, Broker with the Lome Irwin Team in Toronto, affiliated with Royal LePage, said there’s a much more positive outlook on the market and on the cost of debt, which obviously plays a big factor for a lot of people and how comfortable they are taking on an investment of this size and whether they can afford it. 

Prices have softened from 2022 highs and interest rates have likely peaked, so now’s probably a good time to buy if people want to try and get ahead of what could be a stronger spring market with more competition. 

“That’s probably what’s kind of fueled the market in 2024. I think a lot of people were expecting earlier on in the year that interest rates were going to come down sooner than they did and so that forecast kept getting pushed out, pushed out, pushed out, but obviously over the last three interest rate announcements they’ve accelerated the amount that they’re decreasing them each announcement,” added Irwin. 

He said the mortgage reforms are intended to make housing more accessible allowing more people to be able to participate.

“And if more people are participating and we’re not able to keep up with the supply, then that should lead to an increase in prices. I think that is what most people are anticipating is going to happen over the next year.  So pretty positive outlook when you’re looking forward.”

 

A “tremendously busy December for sales” for Calgary Realtor

 

Joel Semmens, with Re/Max House of Real Estate in Calgary, said his sales, which concentrate on higher-end and inner-city properties, experienced a slight pullback in volume from September to November.

“But oddly December we’ve been run off our feet again in terms of sales. It was almost like a bit of a delayed market. I think the interest rate cut as another half a point has kind of helped fuel the market back up and it’s been a really tremendously busy December for sales,” he explained. “Busier than we typically get.

“I think we’re going to have a very busy market starting by mid-February. I think we’ll see an uprise in terms of people bringing their houses to the market to beat the spring and summer rush. I think we’re going to see more inventory coming to the market in February and March…It’s going to be a strong market.”

Renata Reid, senior vice president of Sales with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada in Calgary, says she’s seeing a “phenomenal” December, “with multiple offers still happening right now, which is unusual for this time of year.”

Reid adds, “And our market was already crazy. It’s going to be a really hot market for Calgary going forward.”

The post Housing markets across Canada are defying December norms appeared first on REM.

]]>
https://realestatemagazine.ca/housing-markets-across-canada-are-defying-december-norms/feed/ 0
Average asking rent falls to $2,139—a 15-month low https://realestatemagazine.ca/average-asking-rent-falls-to-2139-a-15-month-low/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/average-asking-rent-falls-to-2139-a-15-month-low/#respond Mon, 16 Dec 2024 10:00:27 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=36134 Average rents in Canada declined to $2,139 in November, marking a 15-month low, according to the latest National Rent Report

The post Average asking rent falls to $2,139—a 15-month low appeared first on REM.

]]>

Average asking rents for residential properties in Canada fell to $2,139 in November, marking a 15-month low, according to the National Rent Report by Rentals.ca and Urbanation. This represents a 1.6 per cent year-over-year drop and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to October. The decline follows a similar trend from earlier in the fall, with rents down 2.2 per cent over the past three months.

“Overall, the recent decline in rents has been very mild and is allowing affordability to improve following a rapid escalation in rents over the past few years,” said Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation. “Declines so far are mainly focused within the secondary market for condos and houses, mostly in B.C. and Ontario, while purpose-built rents are stable.” 

Despite the drop, rents remain significantly higher than historical levels. They are up 6.7 per cent compared to two years ago and 18.8 per cent from three years ago. Over the past five years, rents have increased at an average annual rate of 3.4 per cent, which according to the report is “generally in line” with long-term trends.

 

Regional variations highlight market differences


Ontario saw the steepest declines, with average apartment rents dropping 6.4 per cent year-over-year to $2,351. Two-bedroom apartments in the province saw the largest drop, down 7.6 per cent. B.C. also reported a decrease, with rents falling 2.3 per cent annually to $2,524. Quebec saw a marginal decline of 0.4 per cent, bringing the average asking rent to $1,969.

Other  provinces bucked the national trend. Alberta rents rose 3.7 per cent, while Saskatchewan saw a 12.1 per cent jump and Manitoba’s average rent jumped 7.9 per cent. In the Maritimes, rents grew by 5.1 per cent in New Brunswick and 4.4 per cent in Nova Scotia. Newfoundland and Labrador remained relatively stable, with rents declining by only 0.4 per cent.

 

Declines in Canada’s largest cities 

 


Rents fell in Canada’s five largest cities. Toronto’s average asking rent dropped 9.4 per cent year-over-year to $2,640, reaching a 28-month low. Vancouver saw an 8.9 per cent decline to $2,888, its lowest point in 30 months. Calgary, Ottawa and Montreal also reported year-over-year decreases of 5.8 per cent, 3 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.

 

The post Average asking rent falls to $2,139—a 15-month low appeared first on REM.

]]>
https://realestatemagazine.ca/average-asking-rent-falls-to-2139-a-15-month-low/feed/ 0
Affordable no more? Average condo prices could reach $1M in next decade https://realestatemagazine.ca/affordable-no-more-average-condo-prices-in-canadas-urban-centres-could-reach-1m-in-next-decade/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/affordable-no-more-average-condo-prices-in-canadas-urban-centres-could-reach-1m-in-next-decade/#comments Fri, 13 Dec 2024 10:03:05 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=36100 Zoocasa projects average condo prices in Toronto, Vancouver and Halifax will surpass $1-million within the next decade

The post Affordable no more? Average condo prices could reach $1M in next decade appeared first on REM.

]]>
In the coming decade, average condo prices in some of Canada’s largest cities—including Toronto, Vancouver and Halifax—are expected to cross the $1-million mark.

While condos have long been viewed as the most accessible entry point to the housing market, data analysis from Zoocasa suggests that this affordability advantage may be slipping away. 

 

Ontario dominates the forecast

 

According to Zoocasa’s projections, Ontario will account for the majority of these high-priced markets, including cities like Toronto, London and Hamilton. The Atlantic region is also showing notable growth, with Halifax positioned to join the ranks of million-dollar markets by 2031. 

Traditionally viewed as more affordable than Ontario or British Columbia, Halifax’s rapid price increases reflect heightened demand, a limited inventory and a growing population.

Source: Zoocasa

The methodology 

 

The company’s forecast relies on data from CREA, using the average annual growth rate in median condo prices from 2019 to 2024 as the basis for projections. This growth rate is applied yearly to the most recent price, with each subsequent year’s price forming the base for the next calculation. This method assumes that recent trends, including economic conditions and market demand, will continue at a steady pace.

For example, Halifax condo prices grew by 68.4 per cent over five years, increasing from $247,608 in 2019 to $462,650 in October 2024—an average of 13.68 per cent annually. Using this trajectory, Zoocasa forecasts that Halifax condos will average over $1- million by 2031.

 

Urban centers lead the charge

 

Toronto and Vancouver, Canada’s perennial housing market leaders, are expected to hit the $1-million average even sooner. Vancouver is projected to reach this milestone by 2030, while Toronto is expected to follow in 2031.

Between 2019 and 2024, Toronto’s average condo price rose from $504,758 to $671,980, representing a 33 per cent increase. Meanwhile, Vancouver’s condo prices increased by 27 per cent over the same period, climbing from $605,950 to $768,780.

 

Longer timelines in other markets

 

While many urban centers are on track to hit the $1-million milestone within 10 to 20 years, some regions have a longer road ahead. For example:

  • Calgary: With a strong job market and population growth, Calgary is forecasted to reach $1-million by 2041.
  • Saskatoon: This prairie city is expected to achieve the milestone by 2046, reflecting steady but slower growth.
  • Regina and Winnipeg: These markets have the longest timelines, with projections extending to 2085 and 2081, respectively.

 

Source: Zoocasa

The post Affordable no more? Average condo prices could reach $1M in next decade appeared first on REM.

]]>
https://realestatemagazine.ca/affordable-no-more-average-condo-prices-in-canadas-urban-centres-could-reach-1m-in-next-decade/feed/ 1
Toronto’s housing market grapples with price drops and flat sales in 2024 https://realestatemagazine.ca/torontos-housing-market-grapples-with-price-drops-and-flat-sales-in-2024/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/torontos-housing-market-grapples-with-price-drops-and-flat-sales-in-2024/#respond Tue, 10 Dec 2024 10:00:44 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=36057 Wahi’s 2024 snapshot reveals falling prices, stagnant sales and increased days on market across the GTA

The post Toronto’s housing market grapples with price drops and flat sales in 2024 appeared first on REM.

]]>

This past year delivered a mixed bag for the Greater Toronto Area’s real estate market, with declining prices, mediocre home sales and an increase in average days on market. 

According to Wahi’s 2024 Housing Market Snapshot, early hopes for a spring rebound fell flat, and although rate cuts in the latter half of the year sparked some signs of life, they weren’t enough to drive meaningful growth. Buyers, however, benefited from a flood of inventory, keeping the market competitive and prices in check. 

Wahi’s post-mortem on the 2024 market includes TRREB data from Jan. 1 to Nov. 30, and compares it to the same time period in 2023. 

 

Prices down, sales flat across the GTA

 

The median sales price across the GTA dipped to $965,000, marking a 2 per cent year-over-year decline, while the total number of sales remained unchanged at 62,651. Homes took longer to sell, with the average DOM rising to 24 days (an increase of five days compared to 2023).

Among regions:

  • Toronto saw a 2 per cent decrease in the median sales price to $888,000, while total sales also declined 2 per cent to 24,017.
  • Durham posted a 3 per cent price drop to $860,000, and a 3 per cent jump in sales to 8,8682. 
  • Halton’s median sale price fell 2 per cent to $1.08-million and a 3 per cent increase in sales to 7,7132.
  • Peel’s median sales price dropped 2 per cent to $970,000 while the number of sales fell 2 per cent to 11,363.
  • York also saw a price drop, down 3 per cent to just under $1.22-million, coupled with a 1 per cent decline in sale to 11,457.

 

Buyers had an advantage as inventory stayed high; the number of homes actively listed on the market remained above 20,000 from May onwards. 

 

The condo market remains under pressure

The GTA’s condo market underperformed compared to single-family homes, reflecting a 5 per cent decline in sales and a 3 per cent drop in median prices to $655,500. Condos also remained on the market longer, with an average DOM of 30 days (up seven days year-over-year).

High inventory levels in the condo sector, driven by new developments and investors offloading properties, contributed to downward pressure on prices. Wahi’s data shows that condos took nine days longer to sell than single-family homes on average. The company notes that GTA condo sales jumped to the highest level in three years over September, October and November. 

 

 

Single-family homes hold steady

 

Single-family homes displayed relatively more stability in 2024, with a 2 per cent year-over-year decline in median prices to almost $1.9-million, while sales rose 2 per cent to 39,576 units. This segment also saw a sharper recovery in the fall, as sales gained momentum during September, October and November.

 

Wahi identified the most popular communities based on its website’s search volume as well as neighbourhoods with the most sales. 

Most searched neighbourhoods 

  1. Bowmanville (856 homes sold)
  2. The Danforth (253 homes sold)
  3. Jane and Finch (155 homes sold)
  4. Bridle Path (seven homes sold)
  5. Mount Pleasant, Brampton (481 homes sold)


GTA neighbourhoods with the most sales

  1. Willowdale (1,134 homes sold)
  2. Neighbourhood of Newmarket (922 homes sold)
  3. Bowmanville (856 homes sold) 
  4. Entertainment District (792 homes sold)
  5. Neighbourhood of Aurora (754 homes sold) 

 

The fastest-selling GTA neighbourhoods

 

According to Wahi, It took longer for homes to sell in 86 per cent of neighbourhoods across the GTA in the third quarter of the year compared to Q3 2023, but in some areas, the average DOM was 10 days. 

 

 

Overbidding trends decline

For much of the year, the majority of the GTA’s approximately 400 neighbourhoods have seen prices bid down. As of November, 91 per cent of GTA neighbourhoods were in underbidding territory up from 88 per cent in October. 

 

A buyer’s market in transition

Wahi’s 2024 report paints a picture of a housing market in transition, characterized by more inventory and moderate price declines.

Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen sums up the year, saying in the report, “In 2024, Toronto homebuyers had more choice in the market than they have in years, with listings piling up to the highest level in recent memory.” 

The post Toronto’s housing market grapples with price drops and flat sales in 2024 appeared first on REM.

]]>
https://realestatemagazine.ca/torontos-housing-market-grapples-with-price-drops-and-flat-sales-in-2024/feed/ 0